Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will Oregon semiconductor manufacturing jobs rise YoY?

Total Volume

$5.55K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Oregon semiconductor manufacturing jobs rise YoY?

Vol

$5.55K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.55K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.55K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Oregon's employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for December 2026 be above 26,400 jobs?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Oregon's employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for December 2026 be above 26,400 jobs?	Kalshi	17%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

17%

Top Probability

$5.55K

Volume

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About This Event

December 2026 If BLS reports that Oregon's employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for December 2026 is above 26,400 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is BLS series SMU41000003133440001, measured in thousands of jobs and not seasonally adjusted. Exactly 26.4 thousand resolves No. Use the value published following BLS’s annual benchmark revision; subsequent revisions will not affect resolution. This market will close and expire early if the ec

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Oregon semiconductor manufacturing jobs rise YoY?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** December 2026

If BLS reports that Oregon's employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for December 2026 is above 26,400 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is BLS series SMU41000003133440001, measured in thousands of jobs and not seasonally adjusted. Exactly 26.4 thousand resolves No. Use the value published following BLS’s annual benchmark revision; subsequent revisions will not affect resolution. This market will close and expire early if the ec

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If BLS reports that Oregon's employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for December 2026 is above 26,400 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is BLS series SMU41000003133440001, measured in thousands of jobs and not seasonally adjusted"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Oregon's employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for December 2026 be above 26,400 jobs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $5.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics