Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will Missouri manufacturing employment rise YoY?

Total Volume

$24.62K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Missouri manufacturing employment rise YoY?

Vol

$24.62K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $24.62K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $24.62K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Missouri’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 280,500 jobs?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Missouri’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 280,500 jobs?	Kalshi	34%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

34%

Top Probability

$24.62K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 If BLS reports that Missouri’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 is above 280,500 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is BLS’s officially published annual-average Manufacturing employment for Missouri, measured in thousands of jobs. The 280.5 thousand threshold is fixed and will not change if BLS later revises its 2025 value. BLS publishes Missouri statewide Manufacturing employment as series SMU29000003000000001. This market will close and expire early if

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Missouri manufacturing employment rise YoY?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If BLS reports that Missouri’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 is above 280,500 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is BLS’s officially published annual-average Manufacturing employment for Missouri, measured in thousands of jobs. The 280.5 thousand threshold is fixed and will not change if BLS later revises its 2025 value.

BLS publishes Missouri statewide Manufacturing employment as series SMU29000003000000001. This market will close and expire early if

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If BLS reports that Missouri’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 is above 280,500 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is BLS’s officially published annual-average Manufacturing employment for Missouri, measured in thousands of jobs. The 280.5 thousan"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $24.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Missouri’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 280,500 jobs?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 7, 2027): Vol $24.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics