Name: Bank of Mexico Decision in March?
End: 2026-03-26T00:00:00.000Z

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Bank of Mexico Decision in March? | PredictPedia

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3 markets tracked

Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?	Poly	52%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?	Poly	42%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the March meeting?	Poly	14%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bank of Mexico Decision in March?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 26, 2026 (69 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for March 26, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

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**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information release"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $97
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.09)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 26, 2026): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the March meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 26, 2026): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 26, 2026): Vol $22
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

68d 11h remaining

Mar 26, 2026 12:00 AM

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36¢

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Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?

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Events (1)

Bank of Mexico Decision in March?

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Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the March meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the March meeting?

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Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?

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Bank of Mexico Decision in March?

Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the March meeting?

Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the March meeting?

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