Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets currently assign a 21% probability that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will be removed from power by January 31, 2026. This price, translating to a roughly 1 in 5 chance, indicates the market views a leadership change within this 16-month window as a significant but unlikely tail risk. The market has attracted substantial liquidity, with over $27.7 million in volume, signaling serious trader interest despite the low base probability.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The primary factor suppressing the "Yes" probability is the entrenched political and religious structure of the Islamic Republic. The Supreme Leader holds a constitutionally protected, lifelong position, and Khamenei has systematically consolidated power over three decades, making a forced removal through institutional channels nearly impossible. Furthermore, at age 85, the dominant market narrative likely centers on succession due to natural causes rather than political removal. However, the 21% price is notably non-zero, reflecting persistent underlying risks. These include Khamenei's known health issues, the constant low-grade threat of internal regime fissures, and historical precedent, as Iran's first Supreme Leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, died in office.
What Could Change These Odds
The odds could see volatility from two primary catalysts. First, any credible official report or visible evidence of a significant, acute deterioration in Khamenei's health would cause the "Yes" probability to spike, as markets would price a higher likelihood of death in office before the deadline. Second, a major escalation in domestic unrest that directly challenges the core pillars of the regime could increase pricing for a political ouster, though this is considered a lower-probability scenario. The market will be most sensitive to news from Iranian state media or intelligence reports in the coming months, with the probability likely to drift upward as the January 2026 deadline approaches if Khamenei's public appearances become less frequent.
