Events
GroupKALSHI
Event GroupKALSHIElections
Who will be the Republican nominee for TX-02?
Total Volume
$1.17K
Events
1
Markets
2
Who will be the Republican nominee for TX-02?
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
0
markets · $0.00
Kalshi
2
markets · $1.17K
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $1.17K
100%
Kalshi leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
2 markets tracked
Will Dan Crenshaw be the Republican nominee for TX-02?
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(2)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Dan Crenshaw be the Republican nominee for TX-02? | Kalshi | 88% |
Will Steve Toth be the Republican nominee for TX-02? | Kalshi | 15% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
88%
Top Probability
$1.17K
Volume
2
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets currently assign a 41% probability that Representative Barry Moore will secure the Republican nomination for Alabama's 2026 U.S. Senate race. This price, trading on Kalshi, indicates the market views his candidacy as plausible but highly uncertain, with no clear frontrunner established. The thin trading volume of approximately $9,000 across related markets underscores that this is an early, speculative market with low liquidity. The "Uncertain" tag reflects the lack of decisive information nearly two years before the primary.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
Two primary factors are shaping this early pricing. First, Barry Moore is a known quantity in Alabama Republican politics, a hardline conservative and member of the House Freedom Caucus who won a contentious incumbent-vs-incumbent primary in 2024. This establishes a base of recognition and support. Second, the open seat, as Senator Tommy Tuberville is not expected to seek re-election, creates a volatile and crowded field. Moore's current 41% price likely represents his position as one of several potential high-profile contenders, including other Alabama congressmen or statewide officials, before any have formally declared.
What Could Change These Odds
The odds will be highly sensitive to official declarations, which are not expected until 2025. A formal announcement by Moore would likely boost his probability, while entry by a heavyweight rival, such as Representative Gary Palmer or a figure like former Governor Kay Ivey, could significantly depress his market price. Endorsements from major factions, particularly from former President Donald Trump, would serve as a powerful catalyst given Alabama's political landscape. The market will remain speculative and volatile until the candidate field solidifies, with the first major moves expected post-2024 election cycle.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
