Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Total Volume

$39.91K

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Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

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$39.91K

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $39.91K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $39.91K

100%

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5 markets tracked

Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?	Kalshi	75%
Will Stefan Evers win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?	Kalshi	25%
Will Werner Graf win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Kristin Brinker win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Steffen Krach win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

75%

Top Probability

$39.91K

Volume

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About This Event

in 2026 If X wins the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2026

If X wins the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Werner Graf wins the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $39.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Werner Graf win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 1, 2027): Vol $958
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Steffen Krach win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 1, 2027): Vol $949
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Stefan Evers win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 1, 2027): Vol $8.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Kristin Brinker win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 1, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 1, 2027): Vol $27.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 75.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Volume$39.91K

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.0¢No 25.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

If Elif Eralp wins the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early c

KALSHI

Will Stefan Evers win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Stefan Evers win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

If Stefan Evers wins the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early

KALSHI

Will Werner Graf win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Werner Graf win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

If Werner Graf wins the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early

KALSHI

Will Kristin Brinker win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Kristin Brinker win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

If Kristin Brinker wins the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Ea

KALSHI

Will Steffen Krach win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Steffen Krach win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

If Steffen Krach wins the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Earl

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/I6KHmX" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?"></iframe>

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Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

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Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Markets (5)

Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Stefan Evers win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Stefan Evers win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Werner Graf win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Werner Graf win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Kristin Brinker win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Kristin Brinker win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Steffen Krach win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Steffen Krach win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

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Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Stefan Evers win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Stefan Evers win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Werner Graf win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Werner Graf win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Kristin Brinker win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Kristin Brinker win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Steffen Krach win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

Will Steffen Krach win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election?

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