Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3

Total Volume

$76.62K

Events

Markets

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American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3

Vol

$76.62K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $76.62K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $76.62K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?	Kalshi	94%
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?	Kalshi	79%
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?	Kalshi	62%
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?	Kalshi	32%
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 86% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 86.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 87% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 88% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 87.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

Top Probability

$76.62K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

passenger load factor in Q3 2026 If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above X passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** passenger load factor in Q3 2026

If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above X passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 88.0% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand name"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $76.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 88% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 19, 2027): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 87.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 19, 2027): Vol $11.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 87% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 19, 2027): Vol $12.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 86.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 19, 2027): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 86% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 19, 2027): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 19, 2027): Vol $10.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 19, 2027): Vol $10.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 19, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 19, 2027): Vol $8.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 19, 2027): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3

Volume$76.62K

Markets10

10 of 10

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KALSHI

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.0¢No 6.0¢

KALSHITech

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 83.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand name

KALSHI

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢

KALSHITech

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 84.0% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand name

KALSHI

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.5¢No 38.5¢

KALSHITech

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 84.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand name

KALSHI

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.5¢No 68.5¢

KALSHITech

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 85.0% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand name

KALSHI

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHITech

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

If American Airlines Group Inc. reports Above 85.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand name

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29¢

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American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3

American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3

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Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3

Markets (10)

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

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Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

American Airlines passenger load factor in Q3

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

Will American Airlines Group Inc. report Above 85.5% passenger load factor in Q3 2026?

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