$76.08K
1
30
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Ja Morant If Ja Morant's next team is X before Feb 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign a 50% probability that Ja Morant's next team will be the San Antonio Spurs before February 6, 2026. This price, trading on Kalshi, indicates the market views this outcome as a pure coin flip, with no clear consensus on his future destination. The leading alternative markets, such as those for the Memphis Grizzlies or other teams, collectively make up the other 50% probability. With only $69,000 in total volume spread thinly across 30 team-specific markets, liquidity is low, suggesting this is speculative sentiment rather than a high-conviction forecast.
The 50% price for the Spurs is primarily driven by persistent media speculation linking Morant to San Antonio. This narrative is fueled by the Spurs' possession of a generational talent in Victor Wembanyama and a future war chest of draft assets, creating a logical framework for a potential blockbuster trade to pair two stars. Furthermore, underlying concerns about the Memphis Grizzlies' ability to build a consistent championship contender around Morant, despite his max contract, have led some analysts to question the long-term stability of his tenure there. The market is essentially pricing the compelling, but unconfirmed, rumor of a Wembanyama-Morant pairing against the baseline expectation that franchise players of Morant's caliber rarely get traded.
The odds will remain volatile and sensitive to any new reporting or official statements. A key catalyst would be the performance and playoff results of the Memphis Grizzlies over the next two seasons. An early playoff exit or continued injury concerns could increase the "Spurs" probability significantly. Conversely, a deep Grizzlies playoff run or a public long-term commitment from Morant to Memphis would likely crash the Spurs market. The trade deadline on February 8, 2024, and the following offseason will be critical monitoring periods, as any trade rumors will directly move these thin markets. The market's 2026 expiration allows time for this saga to develop, but major shifts could happen much sooner.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the potential future team of NBA All-Star point guard Ja Morant. Specifically, it asks whether Morant will be playing for a designated team 'X' before February 6, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if he joins that team by that date, and includes an early close condition if the event occurs sooner. Ja Morant, drafted 2nd overall by the Memphis Grizzlies in 2019, quickly became one of the league's most electrifying and marketable players, earning two All-Star selections and the 2020 Rookie of the Year award. However, his career has been marked by significant off-court controversies, including multiple suspensions for brandishing firearms on social media, which have fueled speculation about his long-term future in Memphis. The interest in this market stems from the high-stakes nature of NBA player movement, Morant's unique talent and baggage, and the potential for a franchise-altering trade. Analysts and fans closely monitor his relationship with the Grizzlies' front office, his contract situation, and the competitive landscape of the league to gauge the likelihood of a move.
The context for Ja Morant's situation is rooted in the history of NBA superstar trades, often precipitated by off-court issues or strained relationships. A notable precedent is the 2012 trade of Dwight Howard from the Orlando Magic, which followed a season of public trade demands and perceived drama. More recently, the Brooklyn Nets traded Kyrie Irving to the Dallas Mavericks in February 2023 after a series of controversies created an untenable situation. The Memphis Grizzlies themselves have experience with major trades, having dealt Pau Gasol to the Los Angeles Lakers in 2008, a move that reset the franchise. Morant's five-year, $194.3 million designated rookie max extension, signed in July 2022, began with the 2023-24 season. This contract includes a player option for the 2027-28 season, but more importantly, it includes specific language allowing the team to withhold payment for suspensions related to conduct detrimental to the league. This contractual leverage is a modern tool teams use to manage star player behavior, adding a financial dimension to the historical pattern of teams eventually moving on from disruptive talents.
The question of Ja Morant's next team carries significant weight for the NBA's competitive balance and economic landscape. For the Memphis Grizzlies, trading a homegrown superstar of Morant's caliber would represent a monumental organizational reset, impacting ticket sales, local business revenue, and the team's championship trajectory for years. It would likely trigger a massive return of draft picks and young players, reshaping the futures of both Memphis and the acquiring franchise. For the league at large, Morant's journey is a high-profile test case for how a modern sports league and its franchises manage brilliant but controversial young talent in the social media era. His marketability, which once positioned him as a leading face of the NBA, has been damaged, affecting national television appeal and partnership deals. The outcome influences how agents, teams, and the league office negotiate the complex intersection of talent, discipline, and business.
As of late 2024, Ja Morant has returned to play for the Memphis Grizzlies following his 25-game suspension to start the 2023-24 season. The Grizzlies have publicly expressed support for Morant, emphasizing his rehabilitation and commitment to the team. However, the underlying tension from past incidents and the pressure to maximize the championship window with core players like Jaren Jackson Jr. remains. The team's performance with a full roster, Morant's continued conduct off the court, and the competitive results in the Western Conference will be the immediate factors influencing his status. No trade rumors are currently active, but the situation is considered fluid by league observers given the historical precedents.
Ja Morant is currently the starting point guard for the Memphis Grizzlies. He was drafted by the team in 2019 and signed a maximum contract extension with them in 2022.
The NBA suspended Ja Morant for a total of 25 games to start the 2023-24 season for conduct detrimental to the league. This stemmed from multiple instances, most notably in May 2023 and March 2023, where he appeared to brandish a firearm on social media platforms.
Yes, the Memphis Grizzlies can trade Ja Morant. However, due to the size of his contract and the 'designated rookie' extension rules, there are complex salary-matching requirements that would make a trade logistically challenging and likely involve multiple teams or star players.
Ja Morant signed a five-year, $194.3 million designated rookie maximum extension in July 2022. The contract runs through the 2027-28 season, with a player option for the final year. He is under team control for the foreseeable future.
Theoretically, any team with sufficient trade assets and the ability to match his large salary could pursue a trade. In practice, contenders with young players and draft picks, or teams with multiple max-salary stars to offer in return, are the most plausible destinations, though no such talks are known to be ongoing.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
30 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Washington) | Kalshi | 49% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (San Antonio) | Kalshi | 49% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Portland) | Kalshi | 49% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Oklahoma City) | Kalshi | 49% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Los Angeles L) | Kalshi | 49% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Indiana) | Kalshi | 49% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Detroit) | Kalshi | 49% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Cleveland) | Kalshi | 49% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Chicago) | Kalshi | 49% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Milwaukee) | Kalshi | 42% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Miami) | Kalshi | 31% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Stays with Memphis or Retires) | Kalshi | 28% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Utah) | Kalshi | 14% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Boston) | Kalshi | 12% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Golden State) | Kalshi | 12% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Toronto) | Kalshi | 10% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Sacramento) | Kalshi | 7% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Minnesota) | Kalshi | 5% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Los Angeles C) | Kalshi | 5% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Dallas) | Kalshi | 5% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Phoenix) | Kalshi | 4% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Charlotte) | Kalshi | 4% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Atlanta) | Kalshi | 4% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Orlando) | Kalshi | 3% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Philadelphia) | Kalshi | 3% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Houston) | Kalshi | 3% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Denver) | Kalshi | 3% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (Brooklyn) | Kalshi | 3% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (New York) | Kalshi | 1% |
What will be Ja Morant's next team? (New Orleans) | Kalshi | 1% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/I92ts-" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Ja Morant's next team?"></iframe>