Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court?

Total Volume

$14.07K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court?

Vol

$14.07K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $14.07K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.07K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court before Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	20%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

20%

Top Probability

$14.07K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If Alexandre de Moraes leaves as Justice of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Alexandre de Moraes must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both volunta

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If Alexandre de Moraes leaves as Justice of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Alexandre de Moraes must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.

For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both volunta

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Alexandre de Moraes leaves as Justice of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Alexandre de Moraes must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.

For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $14.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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