Powell out as Chair? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Powell out as Chair?

Total Volume

$367.42K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Powell out as Chair?

Vol

$367.42K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $367.42K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $367.42K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Powell leaves before May 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Powell leaves before May 2026?	Kalshi	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

10%

Top Probability

$367.42K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2025 If Jerome Powell is no longer Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (not merely announces he leaves office) by Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Powell out as Chair?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2025

If Jerome Powell is no longer Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (not merely announces he leaves office) by Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Jerome Powell is no longer Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (not merely announces he leaves office) by Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $367.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $12.80M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.03)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Powell leaves before May 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 7, 2026): Vol $367.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Powell leaves before May 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)