GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which party will win the next UK general election?

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Which party will win the next UK general election?

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Will Labour win the next U.K. election?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Labour win the next U.K. election?	Kalshi	36%
Will Reform win the next U.K. election?	Kalshi	34%
Will Conservative win the next U.K. election?	Kalshi	18%
Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election?	Kalshi	4%
Will Green win the next U.K. election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Liberal Democratic win the next U.K. election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Your Party win the next U.K. election?	Kalshi	0%
Will Bruv win the next U.K. election?	Kalshi	0%

AI Analysis

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36%

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About This Event

In the next U.K. election If X party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. This market will close and expire after the next U.K. election results are announced.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which party will win the next UK general election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In the next U.K. election

If X party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. This market will close and expire after the next U.K. election results are announced.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Restore Britain party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Early close conditio"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Green win the next U.K. election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Your Party win the next U.K. election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Bruv win the next U.K. election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Reform win the next U.K. election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Liberal Democratic win the next U.K. election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Labour win the next U.K. election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Conservative win the next U.K. election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 31, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which party will win the next UK general election?

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KALSHI

Will Labour win the next U.K. election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 36.0¢No 64.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Labour win the next U.K. election?

If the Labour party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Early close condition: This m

KALSHI

Will Reform win the next U.K. election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 33.5¢No 66.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Reform win the next U.K. election?

If the Reform party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Early close condition: This m

KALSHI

Will Conservative win the next U.K. election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Conservative win the next U.K. election?

If the Conservative party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Early close condition:

KALSHI

Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election?

If the Restore Britain party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Early close conditio

KALSHI

Will Green win the next U.K. election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Green win the next U.K. election?

If the Green party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Early close condition: This ma

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Which party will win the next UK general election?

Which party will win the next UK general election?

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Will Labour win the next U.K. election?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Which party will win the next UK general election?

Markets (8)

Will Labour win the next U.K. election?

Will Labour win the next U.K. election?

Will Reform win the next U.K. election?

Will Reform win the next U.K. election?

Will Conservative win the next U.K. election?

Will Conservative win the next U.K. election?

Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election?

Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election?

Will Green win the next U.K. election?

Will Green win the next U.K. election?

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Will Labour win the next U.K. election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which party will win the next UK general election?

Will Labour win the next U.K. election?

Will Labour win the next U.K. election?

Will Reform win the next U.K. election?

Will Reform win the next U.K. election?

Will Conservative win the next U.K. election?

Will Conservative win the next U.K. election?

Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election?

Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election?

Will Green win the next U.K. election?

Will Green win the next U.K. election?

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