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$99.17K
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$99.17K
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In the next U.K. election If X party receives the most seats in the next Y general election, then the market resolves to Yes. If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. This market will close and expire after the next U.K. election results are announced.
Prediction markets currently give the Reform Party roughly a 1 in 3 chance of winning the most seats in the next UK general election. This 37% probability means traders see a Labour or Conservative victory as more likely, but they consider a Reform win a real possibility, not a long-shot. The market reflects a significant shift in expectations for a party that, until recently, was seen as a minor player.
Two main factors explain these odds. First, the Conservative Party has been in power since 2010 and is facing low voter satisfaction. This creates an opening for another party to gain support from frustrated voters. Second, Reform, originally the Brexit Party, has focused its messaging on reducing immigration and cutting government spending. This platform appears to be attracting some traditional Conservative voters, according to recent opinion polls.
The UK uses a "first-past-the-post" electoral system where the party with the most seats in Parliament wins, even without a majority of the national vote. This system usually favors the two largest parties, Labour and Conservatives. For Reform to win, it would need to convert its growing poll numbers into actual seat victories across many local districts, which is historically difficult for a new party.
The election must be held by January 28, 2025. The Prime Minister will choose the exact date, with many analysts expecting an autumn 2024 vote. Key events that could change the prediction include local elections in May 2024, which will test Reform's strength at the ballot box. Major policy announcements from the Conservatives or Labour on issues like immigration or the economy could also shift voter intentions. Finally, any significant change in leadership for the main parties would be a major signal.
Prediction markets have a mixed record on UK elections. They correctly forecast the 2016 Brexit referendum outcome and generally tracked the Conservative victory in 2019. However, they can be volatile and are influenced by current news headlines. For a party like Reform, which has never won a general election, the market is trying to price a truly novel event. This makes the forecast more uncertain than for a typical race between Labour and Conservatives. The relatively low trading volume on this specific question also suggests less consensus among informed traders.
Prediction markets assign a low probability to a Reform UK victory in the next general election. The "Yes" share for "Will Reform win the next U.K. election?" trades at 37% on Kalshi. This price indicates the market views a Reform win as a significant underdog scenario, though not impossible. For context, a 37% chance suggests traders see roughly a one-in-three likelihood, which typically corresponds to an opposition party facing substantial systemic hurdles. The total volume of $99,000 across eight related markets is relatively thin, meaning price movements could be volatile with new information.
Two structural factors heavily suppress Reform's odds. First, the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system punishes smaller parties without concentrated regional support. Reform's national polling, while occasionally reaching the mid-teens, is spread geographically, making it difficult to convert vote share into a plurality of seats. Historical precedent is clear. In 2015, UKIP won 12.6% of the vote but secured only one seat. Current seat projection models consistently show Reform winning fewer than 10 seats.
Second, the Conservative Party's collapse in polling has not primarily benefited Reform in a way that suggests a path to victory. Labour maintains a dominant 20-point lead in most surveys. The market implies that disaffected Conservative voters are splitting between Reform, Labour, and abstention, which fragments the anti-incumbent vote rather than consolidating it behind a single challenger. This dynamic makes a Labour victory the overwhelming consensus, relegating Reform to a spoiler role.
A dramatic shift would require a black swan event that fundamentally reshapes the political landscape before the election, which must be held by January 2025. One scenario is a total collapse of the Conservative vote share below 20%, with those votes migrating almost exclusively to Reform instead of Labour. Another is a major, credibility-destroying scandal for Labour that makes them unpalatable to centrist voters. Short of such extremes, the odds are unlikely to move significantly. The market will be most sensitive to actual by-election results and the final weeks of the official campaign period, where a potent Reform message could potentially alter seat projections in a handful of constituencies.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on which political party will win the next United Kingdom general election, defined as securing the most seats in the House of Commons. The UK operates a parliamentary system where the party with a majority of the 650 seats typically forms the government. If no single party achieves an outright majority, a coalition or minority government may be formed, but the market resolves based on which party wins the most seats. The next election must be held by January 28, 2025, five years after the current Parliament first met. The Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, has been in power since 2010. The main opposition is the Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer. Interest in this market stems from the potential for a significant political shift after 14 years of Conservative government, with current opinion polls consistently showing Labour with a substantial lead. The outcome will determine the UK's policy direction on major issues including the economy, healthcare, immigration, and international relations.
The Conservative Party has won the last four general elections, forming governments since 2010 under David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak. The 2019 election was a significant victory for Boris Johnson's Conservatives, who won 365 seats with the slogan 'Get Brexit Done,' giving them an 80-seat majority over Labour. This was Labour's worst result since 1935, winning only 202 seats. The 2017 election resulted in a hung parliament, with Theresa May's Conservatives losing their majority and forming a confidence-and-supply agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). The 2015 election saw David Cameron's Conservatives win a small majority, which enabled the 2016 Brexit referendum. The last Labour victory was in 2005 under Tony Blair, who won three consecutive elections starting in 1997. Historically, UK governments have lasted full five-year terms only about half the time since World War II, with early elections called for political advantage or due to parliamentary deadlock, as happened in 2017 and 2019.
The outcome of the next election will set the UK's policy direction for the next five years, affecting everything from tax rates and public spending to foreign policy and climate targets. A Labour government would likely increase taxes on high earners and energy companies, invest heavily in green infrastructure, and seek a closer trading relationship with the European Union. A Conservative victory would probably continue policies of tax cuts where possible, stricter immigration controls, and maintaining distance from EU institutions. The election result will also influence the United Kingdom's constitutional future. A strong performance by the Scottish National Party could revive calls for a second independence referendum, while the result in Northern Ireland may affect the stability of the power-sharing government there. For citizens, the result directly impacts the funding and management of the National Health Service, state pensions, and schools.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has stated the election will be held in the second half of 2024. Parliament was formally dissolved on May 30, 2024, marking the start of the official campaign period. All major parties have launched their manifestos. Labour maintains a strong lead in national opinion polls, though some analysts note a slight narrowing of the gap as the campaign progresses. Key battlegrounds include the 'Red Wall' seats in northern England that Conservatives won in 2019, and traditional Conservative strongholds in southern England being targeted by the Liberal Democrats. The first televised leaders' debate between Sunak and Starmer took place on June 4, 2024.
The next UK general election is scheduled for July 4, 2024. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the election on May 22, 2024. The last possible date it could have been held was January 28, 2025.
The UK uses the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) system for general elections. The country is divided into 650 constituencies. Voters select one candidate, and the candidate with the most votes in each constituency wins the seat. The party with the most seats usually forms the government.
If no party wins at least 326 seats, the result is a hung parliament. The incumbent prime minister usually gets the first chance to form a government, either by creating a coalition with other parties or leading a minority government that seeks support on a vote-by-vote basis.
The cost of living, NHS waiting times, and immigration are consistently ranked as top issues by voters. Economic growth, tax policy, and the UK's approach to climate change and net-zero targets are also major points of debate between the parties.
No. The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 restored the power of the prime minister to request a dissolution from the monarch, but elections must be held no more than five years apart. The last election was in December 2019, setting a January 2025 deadline.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
8 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Reform win the next U.K. election? | Kalshi | 37% |
Will Labour win the next U.K. election? | Kalshi | 29% |
Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election? | Kalshi | 17% |
Will Conservative win the next U.K. election? | Kalshi | 12% |
Will Green win the next U.K. election? | Kalshi | 8% |
Will Your Party win the next U.K. election? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Bruv win the next U.K. election? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Liberal Democratic win the next U.K. election? | Kalshi | 1% |
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