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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Central African Republic National Assembly Election Winner

Name: Central African Republic National Assembly Election Winner
End: 2025-12-28T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$112.94K

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Markets

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Central African Republic National Assembly Election Winner

Vol

$112.94K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $112.94K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $112.94K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?	Poly	58%
Will the Movement for the Liberation of the Central African People win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?	Poly	30%
Will Kwa Na Kwa win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?	Poly	3%
Will the National Movement of Independents win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?	Poly	1%
Will the National Union for Democracy and Progress win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?	Poly	0%
Will the Union for Central African Renewal win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?	Poly	0%
Will the Central African Democratic Rally win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

58%

Top Probability

$112.94K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2025 Central African Republic general election is scheduled to be held on December 28, 2025, to elect the 140 members of the National Assembly (CAR’s unicameral parliament). This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most seats in the Central African Republic National Assembly as a result of the next Central African parliamentary election. If initial voting in the next Central African parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market wi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Central African Republic National Assembly Election Winner
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 28, 2025 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** The 2025 Central African Republic general election is scheduled to be held on December 28, 2025, to elect the 140 members of the National Assembly (CAR’s unicameral parliament).

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most seats in the Central African Republic National Assembly as a result of the next Central African parliamentary election.

If initial voting in the next Central African parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market wi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2025 Central African Republic general election is scheduled to be held on December 28, 2025, to elect the 140 members of the National Assembly (CAR’s unicameral parliament).

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most seats in the Central African Republic National Ass"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $112.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $12.1K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.34)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 28, 2025): Vol $31.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the National Movement of Independents win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 28, 2025): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Union for Central African Renewal win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 28, 2025): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Central African Democratic Rally win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 28, 2025): Vol $13.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Movement for the Liberation of the Central African People win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 28, 2025): Vol $41.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the National Union for Democracy and Progress win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 28, 2025): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Kwa Na Kwa win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 28, 2025): Vol $7.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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