Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Name: UFC Fight Night: Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier (Heavyweight, Prelims)
End: 2026-10-18T03:59:59.999Z

Total Volume

$1.98K

Events

Markets

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UFC Fight Night: Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Vol

$1.98K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.98K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.98K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

19 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	56%
Will the fight be won by decision?	Poly	51%
Will the fight end before Round 2?	Poly	51%
Will the fight end before Round 3?	Poly	51%
Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 1?	Poly	51%
Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 2?	Poly	51%
Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 3?	Poly	51%
Will Joel Faglier win in Round 1?	Poly	51%
Will Joel Faglier win in Round 2?	Poly	51%
Will Joel Faglier win in Round 3?	Poly	51%
Will the fight end in a decision or draw?	Poly	51%
UFC Fight Night: Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier (Heavyweight, Prelims)	Poly	51%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	51%
Will Javad Mahjoub win by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will Joel Faglier win by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	50%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	47%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	39%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	18%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

56%

Top Probability

$1.98K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Javad Mahjoub" if Javad Mahjoub is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joel Faglier at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026. It will resolve to "Joel Faglier" if Joel Faglier is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 31, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier (Heavyweight, Prelims)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 18, 2026 (6 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Javad Mahjoub" if Javad Mahjoub is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joel Faglier at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026.

It will resolve to "Joel Faglier" if Joel Faglier is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 31, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Javad Mahjoub" if Javad Mahjoub is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joel Faglier at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026.

It will resolve to "Joel Faglier" if Joel Faglier is officially declared the winner.

If the fight"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $21.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.09)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. UFC Fight Night: Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier (Heavyweight, Prelims)
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Javad Mahjoub: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [Joel Faglier: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Javad Mahjoub win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Joel Faglier win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the fight be won by decision?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the fight end before Round 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the fight end before Round 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Joel Faglier win in Round 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Joel Faglier win in Round 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Joel Faglier win in Round 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the fight end in a decision or draw?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Volume$1.98K

Markets19

19 of 19

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by decision?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will the fight be won by decision?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Javad Mahjoub and Joel Faglier at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026, is won by decision, including unanimous, split, majority, and technical decisions. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a

POLYMARKET

Will the fight end before Round 2?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will the fight end before Round 2?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Javad Mahjoub and Joel Faglier at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026, officially ends before Round 2 begins. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage,

POLYMARKET

Will the fight end before Round 3?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will the fight end before Round 3?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Javad Mahjoub and Joel Faglier at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026, officially ends before Round 3 begins. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage,

POLYMARKET

Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Javad Mahjoub defeats Joel Faglier at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 1, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No

POLYMARKET

Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 2?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 2?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Javad Mahjoub defeats Joel Faglier at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 2, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No

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Oct 18, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC

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48¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/IHX5gG" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="UFC Fight Night: Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier (Heavyweight, Prelims)"></iframe>

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UFC Fight Night: Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier (Heavyweight, Prelims)

UFC Fight Night: Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier (Heavyweight, Prelims)

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Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

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Educational Context

Events (1)

UFC Fight Night: Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Markets (19)

Will the fight be won by decision?

Will the fight be won by decision?

Will the fight end before Round 2?

Will the fight end before Round 2?

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 1?

Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 1?

Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 2?

Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 2?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

UFC Fight Night: Javad Mahjoub vs. Joel Faglier (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Will the fight be won by decision?

Will the fight be won by decision?

Will the fight end before Round 2?

Will the fight end before Round 2?

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 1?

Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 1?

Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 2?

Will Javad Mahjoub win in Round 2?

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