Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Alaska Senate election: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. vote percent (1st Round)

Total Volume

$2.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Alaska Senate election: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. vote percent (1st Round)

Vol

$2.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.00

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	97%
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	85%
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	66%
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	48%
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	35%
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	25%
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 7% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	18%
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?	Kalshi	13%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$2.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Vote Percent - Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not prelimin

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Alaska Senate election: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. vote percent (1st Round)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not prelimin

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 8% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Daniel J. Su"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 7% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Alaska Senate election: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. vote percent (1st Round)

Volume$2.00

Markets8

8 of 8

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 1% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Daniel J. Su

KALSHI

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.0¢No 15.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 2% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Daniel J. Su

KALSHI

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.5¢No 34.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 3% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Daniel J. Su

KALSHI

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.5¢No 52.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 4% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Daniel J. Su

KALSHI

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.5¢No 65.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Daniel J. Su

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

48¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/IITVVD" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Alaska Senate election: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. vote percent (1st Round)"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Alaska Senate election: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. vote percent (1st Round)

Alaska Senate election: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. vote percent (1st Round)

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Alaska Senate election: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. vote percent (1st Round)

Markets (8)

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Alaska Senate election: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. vote percent (1st Round)

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget