Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Israel Election: The Democrats vote share?

Name: Israel Election: The Democrats vote share?
End: 2026-10-27T23:59:00.000Z

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$2.04K

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Israel Election: The Democrats vote share?

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$2.04K

Events

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Price Spread

0.0%avg

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Volume DistributionTotal: $2.04K

100%

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5 markets tracked

Will The Democrats win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will The Democrats win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	41%
Will The Democrats win 7-8% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	39%
Will The Democrats win less than 6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	16%
Will The Democrats win 8-9% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	14%
Will The Democrats win 9% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

41%

Top Probability

$2.04K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Democrats passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Kness

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israel Election: The Democrats vote share?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 27, 2026 (17 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Democrats passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Kness

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Demo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $29.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.07)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will The Democrats win less than 6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $243
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will The Democrats win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $425
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will The Democrats win 7-8% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $777
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will The Democrats win 8-9% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $345
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will The Democrats win 9% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $245
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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