$137.42K
2
31
$137.42K
2
31
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual talks with Donald Trump between January 1 and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction markets are pricing in near-certainty that Donald Trump will speak with Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado before February 1, 2026. The leading contract on this cross-platform event trades at 100%, or 1¢ per share for a "Yes" outcome, indicating the market views this interaction as virtually guaranteed. This price reflects extreme confidence, leaving almost no room for the event not to occur within the defined January 2026 window. The high trading volume of $137,000 across 31 related markets suggests strong liquidity and consensus among traders.
Two primary factors explain the market's certainty. First, there is a clear strategic alignment. María Corina Machado is the recognized leader of Venezuela's opposition and a pivotal figure for any U.S. administration seeking to influence political change against the Maduro regime. A conversation with a potential incoming President Trump in January 2026, likely just before or after a presidential inauguration, would be a standard foreign policy briefing and alignment move. Second, historical precedent supports this. Trump engaged with Venezuelan opposition figures during his first term, and Machado's prominence makes her the inevitable contact for discussions on sanctions, energy policy, and regional strategy.
Given the 100% price, the only factors that could theoretically alter the odds are extreme, unforeseen scenarios. These include a significant, sudden deterioration in Machado's political standing or health that removes her as the opposition leader before January 2026. Alternatively, an extraordinary circumstance preventing Trump from engaging in any foreign policy contacts during the entire month, such as a major domestic crisis, could void the expected diplomatic protocol. However, the market has effectively discounted these tail risks as negligible.
This event is active on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with prices synchronized at the maximum 100% confidence level. The absence of a meaningful arbitrage spread between platforms underscores the universal consensus among traders. The uniformity suggests high-quality information flow and no platform-specific liquidity constraints for this specific contract. The cross-platform volume reinforces that this is viewed as a near-certain geopolitical event, not a speculative gamble.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether specific individuals will engage in conversations with former President Donald Trump during January 2026. The market tracks any form of verbal interaction, including in-person meetings, phone calls, or video conferences, with resolution based on consensus reporting from credible media sources. This topic emerges from Trump's continued influence in American politics following his presidency and potential 2024 campaign, where his communications with political figures, advisors, and media personalities remain significant indicators of political strategy and alliance formation. Interest in Trump's communications stems from their historical impact on policy discussions, political endorsements, and media narratives, particularly during election cycles and periods of political transition. The specific focus on January 2026 coincides with the beginning of a new year that may follow significant political events, including potential election outcomes and the start of new legislative sessions, making it a period of heightened political maneuvering. Observers track these interactions to gauge Trump's ongoing political relevance, his influence within the Republican Party, and his potential role in shaping policy debates and candidate support ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Donald Trump's communication patterns have been a subject of political analysis since his 2016 presidential campaign. During his presidency from 2017 to 2021, Trump maintained an unconventional approach to communications, frequently using Twitter (now X) to announce policy shifts and personnel changes while conducting official calls with world leaders that sometimes diverged from traditional diplomatic protocols. The White House call logs and visitor logs, though incomplete, revealed frequent conversations with media personalities, political allies, and family advisors. In the post-presidency period beginning in 2021, Trump's communications have continued to influence Republican politics, particularly through endorsements in primary elections and strategy discussions ahead of the 2022 midterms. Historical precedents show that Trump's January conversations often set the tone for political strategy throughout election years, as seen in January 2020 when he coordinated with Republican lawmakers ahead of his impeachment trial, and in January 2022 when he began endorsing candidates for the midterm elections. The specific definition of 'talk' in this market follows similar parameters to those used by media organizations tracking presidential communications, building on practices established during coverage of previous administrations.
Tracking Trump's communications provides insight into the evolving power dynamics within the Republican Party and American conservative movement. These conversations often precede significant political developments, including candidate endorsements, policy initiatives, and media strategy shifts that can influence election outcomes and legislative priorities. The individuals Trump chooses to engage with signal his current political alliances and potential future directions for the party. Beyond immediate political implications, these communications matter for historical documentation and understanding of how influence operates in modern American politics. They offer clues about which advisors retain Trump's ear, which media figures can amplify his messages, and which political figures remain in his orbit. For journalists, historians, and political analysts, these interactions provide tangible evidence of relationship networks that shape national politics. The timing in January 2026 is particularly significant as it follows the 2024 presidential election and precedes the 2026 midterm cycle, potentially representing a period of reassessment and strategic planning within Trump's political operation.
As of late 2024, Donald Trump remains actively engaged in political communications while preparing for potential future political activities. He continues to host visitors at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida and maintains a schedule of phone conversations with political allies, advisors, and media figures. Recent reporting indicates he has been particularly focused on conversations regarding the 2024 election aftermath and positioning for the 2026 midterm cycle. Several potential 2026 Senate candidates have reportedly sought his counsel, while current Republican lawmakers continue to coordinate with his political operation on legislative strategy. Media organizations have increased tracking of his public appearances and visitor logs, though complete documentation remains challenging without official White House transparency mechanisms.
Resolution relies on consensus reporting from multiple credible news organizations using standard journalistic verification methods. This includes confirmation from participants, documentation of meetings, or reliable sourcing following established media ethics guidelines. Social media posts alone typically don't constitute verification without additional corroboration.
Any verbal interaction qualifies, including in-person conversations, telephone calls, or video conferences. The communication must involve direct exchange between the two individuals, not merely attendance at the same event or communication through intermediaries. Brief exchanges at public events would qualify if verifiable.
January represents a strategic period in the political calendar, following potential election outcomes and preceding new legislative sessions. It's often when political strategies are formulated for the coming year. Additionally, January 2026 follows the 2024 presidential election and precedes the 2026 midterms, making it particularly significant for political alignment.
This market includes all verbal interactions regardless of location, not just in-person meetings at specific properties. It also includes phone and video communications that wouldn't appear in physical visitor logs. The time-limited January focus allows for more precise tracking than continuous monitoring.
The market resolves based on consensus of credible reporting at the resolution time. If major credible sources contradict initial reports, the consensus determination will reflect the prevailing credible evidence. Disputed reports without clear resolution may result in 'No' resolution if no consensus emerges.
Only the specifically listed individuals in the market parameters qualify. Family members like Ivanka Trump or Donald Trump Jr. would not trigger resolution unless they are explicitly included in the market's listed individuals. The market focuses on political and public figures rather than personal family communications.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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24 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 85% | 3% |
 | 84% | 87% | 3% |
 | 45% | 53% | 8% |
 | 49% | 48% | 1% |
 | 25% | 32% | 7% |
 | 17% | 17% | 0% |
 | 7% | 8% | 0% |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual talks with Donald Trump between January 1 and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Before Feb 1, 2026 If X meet, including phone calls, before Feb 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. X meeting is defined as: an in-person encounter where both parties are physically present in the same location, a virtual meeting via video conference where both parties can see and hear each other in real-time, a phone call where both parties speak directly to each other, or any combination of the above where the parties interact directly in real-time. <p>The following qualify as meetings,
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual talks with Donald Trump between January 1 and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verb
If Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet (including phone calls) before Feb 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A meeting is defined as: an in-person encounter where both parties are physically present in the same location, a virtual meeting via video conference where both
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Polymarket
$88.69K
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$48.73K
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