$3.55M
2
44
$3.55M
2
44
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X has been nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
Prediction markets are currently pricing in a 100% probability that Timothée Chalamet will receive a Best Actor nomination at the 98th Academy Awards, based on the leading contract trading at maximum value. This unanimous market consensus indicates traders view the nomination as virtually certain. Across the broader category of 44 markets tracking potential 2026 Best Actor nominees, total volume has reached $3.5 million, demonstrating high liquidity and significant trader interest in these Oscar forecasts.
The absolute certainty priced in for Chalamet is primarily driven by his starring role in the upcoming film A Complete Unknown, where he portrays music icon Bob Dylan. Directed by James Mangold, the biopic is a major awards season contender, and transformative lead performances in prestigious musical biopics have a strong historical nomination record. Secondly, Chalamet is considered overdue for a Best Actor nomination after a previous Supporting Actor nod, with the market anticipating a narrative favoring his lead actor breakthrough. Third, early industry reporting and festival buzz have positioned this project as a frontrunner, with traders acting on this insider-leaning sentiment well before the official nominations announcement.
Given the 100% price, the only factor that could change these odds is an unforeseen shock, such as the film's release being delayed past the 2025 eligibility window or a significant critical and audience backlash upon its release later this year. The market resolves on January 22, 2026, following the nominations announcement. A major shift would require the film to underperform so severely that it falls out of awards contention entirely, a scenario the current pricing deems impossible.
This event is traded on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with a notable 3.9% price spread. The "Yes" contract is priced higher on Polymarket, reflecting platform-specific liquidity and trader demographics. This spread presents a narrow arbitrage opportunity for sophisticated traders to buy on Kalshi and sell on Polymarket, locking in a small risk-free profit if executed simultaneously. The difference likely stems from varying trader confidence levels and capital flow between the crypto-based Polymarket and the regulated Kalshi platform.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the nomination prospects for the 98th Academy Award for Best Actor, scheduled for the 2026 Oscars ceremony. The Academy Award for Best Actor is one of the most prestigious honors in the entertainment industry, recognizing a male actor for a leading performance in a motion picture from the preceding year. Nominations are determined by the Actors Branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), comprising thousands of working actors. The outcome of this market hinges on the official nomination announcement set for January 22, 2026, resolving to 'Yes' for any listed actor who receives a nomination. Interest in this market stems from the high-profile nature of the Oscars, the significant career boost a nomination provides, and the speculative analysis of film industry trends and awards season campaigns that begin over a year in advance. Recent developments include the conclusion of the 2024 awards season and the early production and festival debuts of films that will be eligible for the 2026 ceremony, making this a forward-looking prediction based on announced projects, director-actor collaborations, and historical voting patterns of the Academy.
The Academy Award for Best Actor was first presented at the 1st Academy Awards in 1929, with Emil Jannings winning for his performances in 'The Last Command' and 'The Way of All Flesh'. The award has evolved significantly, reflecting broader changes in cinema and society. For decades, the category was dominated by traditional studio system stars, but since the rise of independent cinema in the late 20th century, it has seen a wider variety of winners, including younger actors and international performers. A significant historical precedent is the 'Oscar curse' or 'Best Actor slump', a perceived trend where winners experience a career downturn, though this is largely anecdotal. More concretely, the #OscarsSoWhite movement in 2015 and 2016 highlighted a lack of diversity in nominations, leading AMPAS to implement the A2020 initiative and later, more stringent diversity and inclusion standards for Best Picture eligibility, which has increased scrutiny on all major categories. The category has also seen strategic campaigning become a formalized part of the process since the 1990s, with Harvey Weinstein's Miramax famously pioneering aggressive tactics that changed how studios compete for votes.
A Best Actor nomination carries immense cultural and economic weight. For the actor, it signifies peer recognition at the highest level, often leading to significantly higher salaries, more prestigious project offers, and greater creative control. It can redefine or cement a career, as seen with actors like Matthew McConaughey after his 2014 win. For the film's distributors, a nomination provides a substantial box office boost, especially for independent or mid-budget films, and increases the value of streaming rights and home media sales. The nomination also impacts ancillary markets, including increased viewership for the Oscars broadcast itself, which generates hundreds of millions in advertising revenue. On a broader scale, the nominees selected reflect and influence cultural conversations about artistic merit, representation, and the types of stories valued by the film industry, making the category a barometer of Hollywood's priorities and evolution.
As of late 2024, the field for the 98th Academy Awards Best Actor category is in its earliest formative stage. Films eligible for the 2026 Oscars are currently in production or post-production, with many slated for debut at major film festivals in 2025, such as Cannes, Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Early speculation among awards journalists focuses on announced projects from acclaimed directors and actors known for awards-caliber work. No official precursor awards, like the Golden Globes or Critics' Choice Awards, have yet occurred for this cycle. The most recent relevant development is the conclusion of the 2024 Oscars, which provides the latest data point on Academy voting trends, including continued interest in biographical performances and international cinema.
Nominations are chosen by members of the Academy's Actors Branch. They vote via preferential ballot, ranking their top five performances. The complex tabulation process yields the five nominees with the strongest consensus support.
For the 98th Oscars, films must have a qualifying theatrical release in Los Angeles County between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025. The actor's performance must be in a film meeting this release window.
Yes, posthumous nominations are allowed. Notable examples include James Dean, who was nominated twice after his death, and Heath Ledger, who won Best Supporting Actor posthumously in 2009.
Only two actors have achieved this: Spencer Tracy (1937-1938) and Tom Hanks (1993-1994). It is an exceptionally rare feat, demonstrating the difficulty of consecutive recognition.
Yes, organized campaigns by film studios are a standard and influential part of the process. They ensure voters see screeners, attend Q&A events with the cast, and are reminded of a performance's merits through trade advertising and media coverage.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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24 markets tracked
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| 100% | 100% | 0% |
| 99% | 100% | 0% |
| 93% | 93% | 1% |
| 91% | 91% | 1% |
| 75% | 77% | 3% |
| 30% | 29% | 1% |
| 12% | 13% | 1% |
| 4% | 6% | 1% |
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In 2026 If X has been nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when th
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2
If Timothée Chalamet has been nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am
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The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2
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