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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican Party win the OH-02 House seat? | Poly | 91% |
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-02 House seat? | Poly | 10% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House election for Ohio's 2nd congressional district (OH-02). The market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the candidate who wins the seat in the November 4, 2026, midterm elections. The district covers a significant portion of southwestern Ohio, including all of Clermont, Brown, Adams, and Pike counties, plus parts of Warren and Scioto counties. The seat is currently held by Republican Brad Wenstrup, who announced in January 2025 that he would not seek re-election, creating an open race for the first time since 2012. OH-02 is considered a solidly Republican district, having voted for Donald Trump by margins exceeding 30 percentage points in both 2016 and 2020. However, open seats in historically safe districts can sometimes become more competitive, attracting attention from both national parties and political forecasters. The 2026 race will serve as a test of Republican strength in a region that has been a cornerstone of their Ohio coalition, while also offering Democrats a potential opportunity in a favorable national environment if the presidential party typically loses seats in midterm elections.
Ohio's 2nd congressional district has a long history of Republican representation. Since 1967, only two Democrats have held the seat: Thomas Luken (1974-1975) and Rob Portman (1993-1993, before a special election redistricting). Portman switched parties and ran successfully as a Republican in 1994. The modern configuration of OH-02 was largely shaped by the 2010 redistricting, which made it one of the most Republican districts in Ohio. In the 2012 election, following this redistricting, Brad Wenstrup defeated incumbent Democrat Jean Schmidt in the Republican primary and then won the general election with 59% of the vote. The district's political identity is rooted in the suburban and exurban areas around Cincinnati, combined with conservative rural counties stretching toward Appalachia. In presidential elections, the district has supported the Republican nominee by wide margins for decades. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win any county within the current OH-02 was Bill Clinton in 1996, when he carried Clermont County. This historical Republican advantage makes any Democratic victory in 2026 a significant historical upset.
The outcome of the OH-02 race will be interpreted as a barometer of Republican strength in the Midwest. A Democratic win, while unlikely, would signal a dramatic realignment in a region central to Republican electoral maps. It could indicate weakening GOP support among suburban voters, a trend observed in other states but not yet fully realized in Ohio's southern districts. For Republicans, holding the seat is necessary to maintain their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. The 2024 elections resulted in a narrow Republican majority, so every seat counts for the 2026-2028 term. A loss in a district this favorable would force the party to divert resources from more competitive races elsewhere. The election will also test the national political environment. Since 2006, the president's party has lost House seats in every midterm election except 1998 and 2002. If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2024, historical patterns suggest a Republican advantage in the 2026 midterms, which would be expected to help the GOP candidate in OH-02.
As of early 2025, the race is in its earliest stages following Representative Wenstrup's retirement announcement. No major party candidates have officially declared their candidacy. The Republican field is expected to be crowded, with potential candidates including state legislators, local officials, and possibly former Congressman Steve Chabot, who previously represented parts of the district before redistricting. The Ohio Democratic Party is assessing potential recruits but faces a fundamental decision about whether to make a serious financial investment in the district. The primary elections are scheduled for May 5, 2026, giving candidates over a year to organize campaigns. National party committees and Super PACs have not yet made any strategic commitments regarding OH-02, waiting to see candidate quality and the broader national political environment take shape.
The general election is on Tuesday, November 4, 2026. The Ohio primary election to select party nominees is scheduled for May 5, 2026. Early voting in Ohio will begin several weeks before both dates.
The current representative is Republican Brad Wenstrup, first elected in 2012. He announced in January 2025 that he would not seek re-election in 2026, making the seat open for the first time in over a decade.
OH-02 is one of the most Republican districts in the United States. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump won the district by 35 percentage points. The Cook Political Report assigns it a Partisan Voting Index of R+24.
The district includes all of Clermont, Brown, Adams, and Pike counties. It also includes parts of Warren County (the northeastern portion) and Scioto County (the northern portion). The district stretches from the eastern suburbs of Cincinnati to the Ohio River.
Yes, but not in the district's current configuration. Democrat Thomas Luken held the seat from 1974 to 1975. Rob Portman was elected as a Democrat in a 1993 special election but served only a few months before switching parties; he was re-elected as a Republican in 1994.
While the campaign has not yet begun, likely issues include the local economy, particularly manufacturing and agriculture, federal spending and the national debt, social policy debates, and infrastructure needs for the district's rural communities and growing suburbs.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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