Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

SNS-led list margin of victory in Serbia?

Total Volume

$6.07K

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SNS-led list margin of victory in Serbia?

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$6.07K

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $6.07K

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $6.07K

100%

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6 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 3%?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 3%?	Kalshi	66%
Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?	Kalshi	52%
Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?	Kalshi	50%
Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?	Kalshi	47%
Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?	Kalshi	5%
Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 25%?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

66%

Top Probability

$6.07K

Volume

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About This Event

On Oct 25, 2026 If the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above X then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by the SNS-led list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind the SNS-led list if the SNS-led list wins, or the candidate that finishes first if the SNS-led list loses. If the SNS-led list wins, the margin will be positive; if the SNS-led list loses, the margin

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** SNS-led list margin of victory in Serbia?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 25, 2026

If the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above X then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by the SNS-led list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind the SNS-led list if the SNS-led list wins, or the candidate that finishes first if the SNS-led list loses. If the SNS-led list wins, the margin will be positive; if the SNS-led list loses, the margin

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by the SNS-led list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $240
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $205
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

SNS-led list margin of victory in Serbia?

Volume$6.07K

Markets6

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 3%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.5¢No 34.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 3%?

If the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by the SNS-led list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behi

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?

If the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by the SNS-led list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behi

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?

If the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by the SNS-led list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately beh

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.5¢No 53.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?

If the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above 15%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by the SNS-led list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately beh

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?

If the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above 20%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by the SNS-led list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately beh

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/IUorYJ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="SNS-led list margin of victory in Serbia?"></iframe>

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SNS-led list margin of victory in Serbia?

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Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 3%?

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Events (1)

SNS-led list margin of victory in Serbia?

Markets (6)

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 3%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 3%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?

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Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 3%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

SNS-led list margin of victory in Serbia?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 3%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 3%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?

Will the margin of victory for SNS-led list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?

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