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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican Party win the TX-38 House seat? | Poly | 87% |
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-38 House seat? | Poly | 11% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the 2026 election for Texas's 38th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. The market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate, as determined by official ballot listings or other identifiable party affiliation when all 2026 House races are called by the market's designated resolution sources. The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026, as part of the national midterm elections. Texas's 38th district is a newly created seat, established following the 2020 census and first contested in the 2022 elections. Its boundaries encompass parts of northern Harris County, including communities such as Spring and Humble. The district's demographic composition and political leanings make it a competitive area worth watching in the 2026 cycle. Interest in this market stems from its status as a bellwether for suburban Texas politics and the broader battle for control of the House of Representatives. The 2026 midterms will be the first national election after the 2024 presidential race, setting the stage for the second half of the presidential term. Political analysts view districts like TX-38 as indicators of shifting voter allegiances in key metropolitan regions. The outcome will also influence the balance of power in Congress, affecting legislative agendas on issues from immigration to energy policy.
Texas's 38th congressional district did not exist prior to the 2022 elections. It was created as part of the redistricting process following the 2020 United States census, which awarded Texas two additional congressional seats due to population growth. The Texas Legislature, in a special session in 2021, drew and passed the new congressional map (Plan C2193). The 38th district was crafted from parts of several existing districts, primarily the 2nd, 7th, and 10th, with the intent of creating a new Republican-leaning seat in the Houston suburbs. The district's first election in 2022 featured Republican Wesley Hunt, a political newcomer, against Democrat Duncan Klussmann. Hunt's victory margin of over 27 percentage points established the district as solidly Republican in its initial electoral test. The creation of TX-38 is part of a longer historical trend in Texas politics where rapid suburban growth, particularly around major cities like Houston, Dallas, and Austin, has forced constant reconfiguration of political maps. For decades, Texas has gained congressional seats after each census since 1950, except for 1980. Each redistricting cycle sparks intense political and legal battles, as seen in cases like *League of United Latin American Citizens v. Perry* (2006). The 2021 map faced immediate legal challenges alleging it diluted the voting power of racial minorities, but it was used for the 2022 elections.
The outcome of the TX-38 race matters because it is a measure of Republican strength in the diversifying suburbs of a major American city. Houston's northern suburbs are home to a mix of long-time residents and new arrivals, with economies tied to energy, healthcare, and aerospace. A shift in voting patterns here could signal broader political changes in Texas, a state both parties see as essential for winning presidential elections and congressional majorities. A Democratic win, while currently improbable, would suggest a significant political realignment. A strong Republican hold indicates the party's continued dominance in Texas's newly drawn districts. Beyond symbolism, the election determines who represents approximately 766,000 people in Congress. The representative votes on federal legislation affecting energy policy, immigration, taxation, and healthcare. The district includes parts of the Houston metropolitan area critical to the national energy sector. The congressperson's committee assignments can influence federal policy on finance, science, and technology, with direct consequences for local industries and jobs.
As of late 2024, Representative Wesley Hunt is the incumbent and presumptive Republican nominee for the 2026 election. No prominent Democratic challenger has officially declared candidacy. The political landscape is shaped by the upcoming 2024 presidential election, whose outcome will set the national context for the 2026 midterms. The district's boundaries remain unchanged from the 2021 map, and no active litigation is expected to alter them before 2026. Campaign activity for the 2026 cycle is minimal, with focus currently on the 2024 elections. Fundraising reports for Hunt's campaign committee will begin to show early financial strength in 2025.
Texas's 38th congressional district is located in the northern part of the Houston metropolitan area. It includes communities in northern Harris County such as Spring, Humble, and parts of unincorporated Harris County near George Bush Intercontinental Airport.
As of 2024, the U.S. Representative for Texas's 38th congressional district is Republican Wesley Hunt. He was first elected in November 2022 and began his term in January 2023.
Based on its 2022 election results and demographic analysis, TX-38 is considered a solidly Republican district. The Cook Political Report rates it as R+12, meaning it leans significantly more Republican than the national average.
The district was created in 2021 during the Texas legislature's redistricting process following the 2020 census. It was first contested in the November 2022 midterm elections.
Key issues typically include local economic concerns tied to the energy and aerospace sectors, federal spending and taxation, immigration policy, and infrastructure needs for the growing suburban population. Education and healthcare also feature prominently.
The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate who wins the November 4, 2026, election for the TX-38 House seat. The winner's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation when major media outlets and election authorities conclusively call all 2026 House races.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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