Name: Which company will have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

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Which company will have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | PredictPedia

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9 markets tracked

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	Poly	44%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	Poly	37%
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	Poly	12%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	Poly	6%
Will xAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	Poly	4%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	Poly	0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	Poly	0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	Poly	0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which company will have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (75 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time,"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $45.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $30.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.50)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Z.ai have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $8.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Mistral have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $6.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Alibaba have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will xAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Moonshot have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

74d 13h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

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11¢

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Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

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Events (1)

Which company will have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Markets (9)

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will xAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will xAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

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Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which company will have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will xAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Will xAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

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