Market snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Name: 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
End: 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$155.35K

Events

Markets

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2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Vol

$155.35K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $155.35K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $155.35K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?	Poly	28%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?	Poly	23%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?	Poly	21%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?	Poly	9%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?	Poly	9%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?	Poly	6%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?	Poly	4%
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?	Poly	3%
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?	Poly	2%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%?	Poly	2%
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?	Poly	2%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 16% or more?	Poly	2%
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 6% or more?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

28%

Top Probability

$155.35K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this elect

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 4, 2026 (22 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.

For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this elect

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.

For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $155.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $468.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.33)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 16% or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $10.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $16.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $17.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $8.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $17.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $21.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $31.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 6% or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics