Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Nebraska Senate margin of victory

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$1.25K

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Nebraska Senate margin of victory

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$1.25K

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markets · $1.25K

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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5 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 1 percentage points?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 1 percentage points?	Kalshi	20%
Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 3 percentage points?	Kalshi	12%
Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 6 percentage points?	Kalshi	5%
Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 9 percentage points?	Kalshi	4%
Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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20%

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$1.25K

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About This Event

In 2026 If Dan Osborn wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Dan Osborn minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Dan Osborn if Dan Osborn wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Dan Osborn loses. Each margin range is inclus

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Nebraska Senate margin of victory
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If Dan Osborn wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Dan Osborn minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Dan Osborn if Dan Osborn wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Dan Osborn loses. Each margin range is inclus

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Dan Osborn wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Dan Osborn minus the v"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 1 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 9 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 6 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 3 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $184
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Nebraska Senate margin of victory

Volume$1.25K

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 1 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 1 percentage points?

If Dan Osborn wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Dan Osborn minus the v

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 3 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 3 percentage points?

If Dan Osborn wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Dan Osborn minus the v

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 6 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.9¢No 95.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 6 percentage points?

If Dan Osborn wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Dan Osborn minus the v

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 9 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.6¢No 96.4¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 9 percentage points?

If Dan Osborn wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Dan Osborn minus the v

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.1¢No 96.9¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?

If Dan Osborn wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Dan Osborn minus the

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Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 1 percentage points?

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Events (1)

Nebraska Senate margin of victory

Markets (5)

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 1 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 1 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 3 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 3 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 6 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 6 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 9 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 9 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?

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Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 1 percentage points?

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Nebraska Senate margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 1 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 1 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 3 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 3 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 6 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 6 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 9 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 9 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate election be at least 12 percentage points?

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