$1.47K
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$1.47K
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8
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This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is
Prediction markets are currently assigning a low probability to the prospect of Crude Oil (CL) settling between $55 and $60 per barrel in January 2026. The leading contract for this specific price bracket is trading at just 38% on Polymarket. This price indicates the market views this outcome as less likely than not, though not as a remote impossibility. With thin liquidity of only $7,000 in volume spread across eight price-range markets, the current odds should be interpreted with caution as they may be more susceptible to sharp moves on new information.
The primary factor suppressing odds for a sub-$60 settlement is the current fundamental and geopolitical landscape. As of early 2026, OPEC+ production discipline, persistent geopolitical risks in key regions, and steady global demand are providing a floor for prices. Historically, periods of concerted OPEC+ supply management have kept benchmarks above the $60 threshold. Secondly, the market structure for crude futures, where the active month contract is priced, typically incorporates a risk premium for near-term disruptions, making a sharp collapse into the mid-$50s unlikely without a significant demand shock. The low trading volume itself is a factor, as it reflects a lack of strong conviction in any specific price range at this extended horizon.
The odds for this lower price bracket could increase substantially with specific catalysts. A pronounced slowdown in global economic growth, particularly in major consuming regions like China and the United States, would pressure demand forecasts. A decisive breakdown in OPEC+ cohesion leading to a surge in production would be a fundamental game-changer. Conversely, odds would fall further from 38% on any escalation of supply disruptions or if OPEC+ signals extended or deeper cuts at its upcoming meetings. The thin liquidity means any major headline related to these factors before the January 31, 2026 resolution could cause volatile repricing.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for January 2026, specifically the official CME Group settlement price for the active month contract on the final trading day of that month. WTI crude oil, traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) under the ticker CL, is a globally recognized benchmark for oil pricing, particularly for light, sweet crude delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma. The market's resolution depends on the precise official settlement published by CME Group, with specific rules for tie-breaking scenarios and holiday-adjusted trading sessions. This forward-looking price point serves as a crucial financial indicator, reflecting market expectations for supply, demand, and geopolitical stability nearly two years into the future. Interest in this specific forward price stems from its use by traders, energy companies, and policymakers to hedge risk, allocate capital for long-term projects like drilling, and gauge the economic outlook. Recent volatility, driven by OPEC+ production decisions, the energy transition, and geopolitical tensions, makes such distant price points particularly uncertain and therefore a subject of intense speculation and risk management.
The modern era of oil futures trading began with the launch of the crude oil contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 1983. This provided a vital tool for price discovery and risk management following the volatility of the 1970s oil crises. A pivotal historical precedent for price forecasting occurred in 2008, when WTI surged to a nominal record high of $147.27 per barrel in July, only to collapse to near $30 by year-end, demonstrating the extreme volatility and forecasting challenges inherent in the market. The 2014-2016 price crash, driven by the U.S. shale revolution and OPEC's decision to defend market share, saw prices fall from over $100 to below $30, reshaping global production economics and leading to the formation of the OPEC+ alliance. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused an unprecedented demand shock, briefly sending front-month WTI futures into negative territory for the first time in history, highlighting vulnerabilities in physical storage logistics. These events underscore that long-dated futures prices, like the January 2026 contract, are not simple extrapolations but complex assessments of cyclical trends, technological disruption, and geopolitical risk.
The settlement price of oil in January 2026 has profound economic implications. It directly influences trillions of dollars in global energy investments, determining the viability of new drilling projects, renewable energy competitiveness, and national budget planning for oil-exporting countries. A sustained high price could accelerate the energy transition but also fuel inflation and strain household budgets, while a low price could undermine investment in new supply, setting the stage for future shortages and price spikes. The price level shapes geopolitical power dynamics, affecting the fiscal health and political stability of petrostates from Saudi Arabia to Venezuela, and influencing the strategic calculations of major importers like China and India. For consumers and businesses worldwide, it is a key determinant of transportation, heating, and manufacturing costs, embedding itself in the price of virtually all goods and services.
As of late 2024, the oil market is characterized by significant uncertainty balancing competing forces. On the supply side, OPEC+ has maintained substantial voluntary production cuts to support prices, while non-OPEC+ production, led by the U.S., Guyana, and Brazil, continues to grow. Demand outlooks are mixed, with robust consumption from sectors like aviation and petrochemicals offset by concerns over slower economic growth in key regions and the longer-term impact of electric vehicle adoption. Geopolitical risks, including conflicts in the Middle East and sanctions on major producers, remain elevated, contributing to a volatility premium in prices. The forward curve for WTI futures shows the market in a state of contango for 2025-2026, indicating expectations for adequate future supply relative to demand.
The CME settlement price is the official daily reference price for WTI futures, calculated by the exchange at the close of trading. It is not simply the last traded price, but a volume-weighted average of trades during a specific settlement period, designed to prevent manipulation and provide a fair market value for contract expiration and cash settlement.
The Active Month is the nearest-to-expiration NYMEX WTI futures contract with the highest trading volume. As one contract expires, trading activity rolls forward to the next month, making it the primary contract for price discovery. For a January 2026 settlement, the Active Month in late January 2026 will be the March 2026 contract.
OPEC and OPEC+ production decisions directly alter the physical supply of oil available to the market. Announcements of cuts or increases signal their long-term market management strategy, influencing trader expectations for inventory levels years ahead. These expectations are immediately priced into the forward curve, including contracts for 2026.
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is a light, sweet crude delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, and is the primary benchmark for U.S. oil. Brent crude, sourced from the North Sea, is the primary benchmark for waterborne crude in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. The price difference, or spread, reflects transportation costs, quality differentials, and regional supply-demand balances.
While possible for a front-month contract at expiration if physical storage is completely full, it is highly unlikely for a contract as distant as January 2026. Negative prices are a short-term logistical phenomenon, not a long-term pricing expectation. The 2026 price reflects expectations for supply, demand, and storage availability at that future date.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 29% |
| Poly | 18% |
| Poly | 18% |
| Poly | 18% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 8% |
| Poly | 6% |
| Poly | 6% |
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