Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 5AM ET
Total Volume
$46.96K
Events
1
Markets
1
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 5AM ET
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $46.96K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $46.96K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 5AM ET
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 100% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
100%
Top Probability
$46.96K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for t
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets are forecasting with near certainty that the price of Solana (SOL) will be higher at 6:00 AM ET on March 1 than it was at 5:00 AM ET. The market shows a 100% probability for the "Up" outcome. This means traders collectively believe it is virtually guaranteed that SOL's one-hour price movement, as measured on Binance, will be flat or positive. In practical terms, they see no chance of a decline in that specific window.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
This extreme confidence is unusual and points to a specific market mechanic rather than a pure price prediction. The event resolves based on a single, one-hour candle on an exchange. For the "Down" outcome to win, SOL must trade lower at the end of that hour than at the beginning. A 100% "Up" price suggests traders may have found a way to effectively lock in a profit by placing offsetting bets, a process called arbitrage. When this happens, the market price reflects a settled financial position instead of a genuine forecast about volatility.
The focus on Solana is notable because it is a major cryptocurrency known for its fast transaction speeds and lower costs compared to Ethereum. Its price is often seen as a barometer for investor appetite in the broader "altcoin" market beyond Bitcoin. However, in this case, the market dynamics are more about the structure of the prediction contract itself than a deep view on SOL's price action.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The only key moment is the resolution time: 6:00 AM ET on Friday, March 1. This is when the one-hour candle closes and the outcome is determined. No other news or events will change this market's result, as it is isolated to that exact 60-minute period. The price source is specifically the SOL/USDT trading pair on the Binance exchange.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For binary events like this with a very short time frame and a clear data source, prediction markets are typically highly reliable at aggregating known information. However, a 100% probability is a red flag. It often indicates the market has stopped being a prediction tool and has become a settled financial instrument. In standard conditions, markets are good at forecasting, but probabilities this extreme usually reflect a technical market closure rather than insight. For a genuine sense of where traders think SOL's price is headed, look at markets with longer time horizons or more variance in their probability.
Current Market Outlook
The Polymarket contract "Solana Up or Down - March 1, 5AM ET" is trading at 100% for the "Up" outcome. This price indicates the market has resolved. A 100% price means traders are completely certain the event's condition was met, specifically that the closing price of the 5AM ET hourly candle for SOL/USDT on Binance was at or above its opening price. With $47,000 in total volume, liquidity was thin, suggesting limited trading interest before the event occurred.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The final 100% price is a definitive settlement, not a probabilistic forecast. For a short-term, binary market like this, the final outcome is driven solely by the underlying asset's price action in the specified 60-minute window. The high confidence reflects verified on-chain data from the resolution source, Binance. These markets are often used for quick speculation or hedging around scheduled volatility, rather than long-term thematic bets. The thin volume indicates this was a niche event, possibly overshadowed by broader market movements or a lack of major catalysts specifically timed for that hour.
What Could Change These Odds
For a resolved market, the odds cannot change. The analysis now shifts to understanding why the price moved as it did during that period. The outcome was likely influenced by micro-structure flows on Binance in that hour, not by fundamental shifts in Solana's value. Key factors during the live window would have included order book liquidity, spot market reactions to any news hitting at 5AM ET, or algorithmic trading patterns common at the hourly candle flip. Without a major scheduled announcement, the price movement was probably noise within Solana's typical intraday volatility.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.