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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

Name: Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
End: 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.63M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

Vol

$3.63M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.63M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.63M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	99%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will Yabloko win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$3.63M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid vo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 20, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid vo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.63M
* **Total Liquidity:** $892.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.07)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $1.13M
  DATA: [Yes: 98.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $197.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $742.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $226.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $160.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $505.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $604.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Yabloko win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $67.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics