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Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

Name: Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.23K

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Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

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markets · $5.23K

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Volume DistributionTotal: $5.23K

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Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

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Market	Platform	Price
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?	Poly	52%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 29, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (32 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Israeli air, miss

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aeria"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.61)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

31d 11h remaining

Apr 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

52¢

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Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

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