This prediction market topic concerns whether Apple will release a second-generation Apple Vision Pro headset, tentatively referred to as Apple Vision Pro 2, by December 31, 2026. The market resolves based on the public release of a qualifying successor product that retains the core functions of the original Vision Pro, which launched in February 2024. This topic sits at the intersection of consumer electronics, corporate strategy, and emerging spatial computing technology, generating significant interest from investors, developers, and industry analysts. The original Vision Pro represents Apple's most significant new product category since the Apple Watch in 2015, positioning the company in the competitive mixed reality and augmented reality space. Recent developments include ongoing software updates, developer kit distribution, and persistent rumors about a more affordable model, fueling speculation about the timeline for a true generational successor. People are interested because the release cadence will signal Apple's long-term commitment to the platform, influence the broader XR industry's direction, and determine the availability of improved hardware crucial for developer adoption and consumer accessibility.

Historical Context

Apple's entry into spatial computing follows a long history of product category creation and iteration. The company's modern hardware release patterns provide critical context. The iPhone, launched in 2007, established an annual update cycle. The iPad, launched in 2010, initially followed a roughly annual cycle but later shifted to a more variable timeline. The Apple Watch, introduced in 2015, also settled into an annual release pattern. However, entirely new product categories from Apple often have longer initial gaps before a second generation. The original Apple Watch was followed by Series 1 and 2 after approximately 18 months. The first-generation Vision Pro was announced in June 2023 and released in February 2024. Apple's historical precedent suggests a second-generation model could arrive 1.5 to 3 years after the initial release, placing a potential Vision Pro 2 launch window between late 2025 and early 2027. Furthermore, Apple has a track record of following a high-end, expensive first product with more accessible versions, as seen with the Mac and iPhone, which informs speculation about a lower-cost Vision product potentially preceding a Vision Pro 2.

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