Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which referendum questions will pass in Alberta?

Total Volume

$7.04K

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Which referendum questions will pass in Alberta?

Vol

$7.04K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $7.04K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.04K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Question 5 pass?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Question 5 pass?	Kalshi	97%
Will Question 3 pass?	Kalshi	91%
Will Question 4 pass?	Kalshi	90%
Will Question 1 pass?	Kalshi	88%
Will Question 2 pass?	Kalshi	84%
Will Question 9 pass?	Kalshi	45%
Will Question 6 pass?	Kalshi	42%
Will Question 8 pass?	Kalshi	36%
Will Question 7 pass?	Kalshi	30%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$7.04K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

In 2026 If Question X passes in Alberta, then the market resolves to Yes. X question "passes" when a majority of the ballots validly cast on that question vote "Yes", as shown in the official results published by Elections Alberta. This applies whether or not the result is binding on the Government of Alberta. Question numbers refer to the numbered ballots in Alberta's October 19, 2026 referendum, as listed by Elections Alberta. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which referendum questions will pass in Alberta?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If Question X passes in Alberta, then the market resolves to Yes. X question "passes" when a majority of the ballots validly cast on that question vote "Yes", as shown in the official results published by Elections Alberta. This applies whether or not the result is binding on the Government of Alberta. Question numbers refer to the numbered ballots in Alberta's October 19, 2026 referendum, as listed by Elections Alberta. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Question 9 passes in Alberta, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A question "passes" when a majority of the ballots validly cast on that question vote "Yes", as shown in the official results published by Elections Alberta. This applies whether or not the result is binding on the Go"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Question 9 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Question 8 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2027): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Question 7 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Question 6 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Question 5 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Question 4 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Question 3 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Question 2 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Question 1 pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 26, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which referendum questions will pass in Alberta?

Volume$7.04K

Markets9

9 of 9

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KALSHI

Will Question 5 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Question 5 pass?

If Question 5 passes in Alberta, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A question "passes" when a majority of the ballots validly cast on that question vote "Yes", as shown in the official results published by Elections Alberta. This applies whether or not the result is binding on the Go

KALSHI

Will Question 3 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Question 3 pass?

If Question 3 passes in Alberta, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A question "passes" when a majority of the ballots validly cast on that question vote "Yes", as shown in the official results published by Elections Alberta. This applies whether or not the result is binding on the Go

KALSHI

Will Question 4 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.5¢No 10.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Question 4 pass?

If Question 4 passes in Alberta, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A question "passes" when a majority of the ballots validly cast on that question vote "Yes", as shown in the official results published by Elections Alberta. This applies whether or not the result is binding on the Go

KALSHI

Will Question 1 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Question 1 pass?

If Question 1 passes in Alberta, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A question "passes" when a majority of the ballots validly cast on that question vote "Yes", as shown in the official results published by Elections Alberta. This applies whether or not the result is binding on the Go

KALSHI

Will Question 2 pass?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.0¢No 16.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Question 2 pass?

If Question 2 passes in Alberta, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A question "passes" when a majority of the ballots validly cast on that question vote "Yes", as shown in the official results published by Elections Alberta. This applies whether or not the result is binding on the Go

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Which referendum questions will pass in Alberta?

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Will Question 5 pass?

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Events (1)

Which referendum questions will pass in Alberta?

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Will Question 5 pass?

Will Question 5 pass?

Will Question 3 pass?

Will Question 3 pass?

Will Question 4 pass?

Will Question 4 pass?

Will Question 1 pass?

Will Question 1 pass?

Will Question 2 pass?

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Will Question 5 pass?

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Which referendum questions will pass in Alberta?

Will Question 5 pass?

Will Question 5 pass?

Will Question 3 pass?

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