$502.93K
1
11
$502.93K
1
11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on determining whether Bitcoin's price will fall within specific price brackets at a precise moment: noon Eastern Time on January 16, as measured by the closing price of a one-minute BTC/USDT trading candle on the Binance exchange. The market resolves to a specific outcome based on this single data point, or to 'No' if the price is unavailable. This type of market exemplifies the growing intersection of cryptocurrency price speculation and prediction markets, where participants bet on highly specific, time-bound financial events. Interest stems from Bitcoin's inherent volatility and its role as the leading cryptocurrency, with its price influenced by macroeconomic factors, regulatory news, institutional adoption, and technological developments. Recent developments, including the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and shifting monetary policy expectations, have increased mainstream attention and trading volume, making short-term price predictions a focal point for traders and analysts. The specificity of the resolution mechanism, relying solely on Binance data at a precise second, highlights the technical nature of modern crypto trading and the demand for markets that settle on verifiable, exchange-based metrics.
Bitcoin's price history is defined by extreme volatility and cyclical bull and bear markets. A key precedent for date-specific price scrutiny was December 17, 2017, when Bitcoin reached its then-all-time high near $20,000 before beginning a prolonged bear market. More recently, the period surrounding the launch of U.S. futures-based Bitcoin ETFs in 2017 and the eventual approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 saw significant price swings tied to regulatory deadlines and launch dates. The 'Crypto Winter' of 2022, triggered by the collapses of Terra/Luna and FTX, saw Bitcoin fall from a November 2021 high of nearly $69,000 to below $16,000 by the end of 2022, demonstrating its sensitivity to systemic shocks within the crypto ecosystem. Historically, January has been a mixed month for Bitcoin; for example, it started 2023 around $16,500 and rallied strongly, while January 2022 saw a decline from around $47,000 to $38,000. These past cycles inform analyst expectations for price behavior at the start of a new calendar year, a time often associated with portfolio rebalancing and renewed institutional investment flows.
The outcome of this specific price point matters as a microcosm of broader market sentiment and efficiency. A price significantly above or below prevailing forecasts can indicate unexpected macroeconomic news, regulatory actions, or shifts in institutional capital flows that occurred in the preceding hours or days. For participants in prediction markets and derivatives traders, the accuracy of such pinpoint forecasts tests market hypotheses and trading models. On a wider scale, Bitcoin's price stability or volatility at a defined moment influences the perceived risk profile of the entire digital asset class, affecting investment decisions for corporations, hedge funds, and retail holders. Significant moves can impact the balance sheets of public companies holding Bitcoin, the profitability of mining operations, and the viability of projects within the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem that depend on market sentiment and funding.
As of late 2024, Bitcoin is trading in a range influenced by the sustained inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and evolving expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. The market is consolidating after a significant rally following the ETF approvals earlier in the year. Traders are monitoring macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation reports and employment figures, for clues on the timing of potential rate cuts, which are generally seen as bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin. Geopolitical tensions and regulatory developments in major economies also contribute to near-term price uncertainty in the lead-up to January.
The market resolves based on noon Eastern Time (ET) on January 16. This is critical because cryptocurrency markets trade 24/7, so the price can differ significantly across time zones and moments within the day.
Binance is consistently one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges by trading volume for the BTC/USDT pair. Its high liquidity makes its price data less susceptible to manipulation or anomalies at any given minute, providing a reliable and widely recognized benchmark.
According to the market description, if the reported value is unavailable from the specified source at the specified time, the market will resolve to 'No'. This underscores the importance of exchange reliability for time-sensitive settlements.
Historically, January performance has been inconsistent. Some years see strong rallies, while others see declines, often influenced by tax-related selling in December, new year investment allocations, and major news events early in the calendar year.
It is the final trading price of Bitcoin against USDT recorded at the end of a specific one-minute interval on Binance's chart. For this market, only the price at the exact end of the minute containing 12:00:00 ET matters.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
11 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 55% |
| Poly | 37% |
| Poly | 6% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Iw7yfB" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Bitcoin price on January 16?"></iframe>