Name: South African Reserve Bank Decision in March?
End: 2026-03-26T00:00:00.000Z

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South African Reserve Bank Decision in March? | PredictPedia

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Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the March meeting?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the March meeting?	Poly	65%
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the March meeting?	Poly	41%
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the March meeting?	Poly	1%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** South African Reserve Bank Decision in March?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 26, 2026 (32 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the change in the repo rate resulting from the South African Reserve Bank’s March Monetary Policy Committee meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the South African Reserve Bank after its March 26, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank meeting schedule: https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar

This market may resolve as soon 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the change in the repo rate resulting from the South African Reserve Bank’s March Monetary Policy Committee meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the South African Reserve B"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $631
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.27)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the March meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 26, 2026): Vol $153
  DATA: [Yes: 65.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the March meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 26, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the March meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 26, 2026): Vol $468
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

31d 15h remaining

Mar 26, 2026 12:00 AM

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36¢

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Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the March meeting?

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Events (1)

South African Reserve Bank Decision in March?

Markets (3)

Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the March meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the March meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the March meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the March meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the March meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the March meeting?

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Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the March meeting?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

South African Reserve Bank Decision in March?

Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the March meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the March meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the March meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the March meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the March meeting?

Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the March meeting?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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