Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?

Name: Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
End: 2026-09-21T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$20.14K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?

Vol

$20.14K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $20.14K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.14K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will SPD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will SPD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	Poly	96%
Will Linke be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	Poly	90%
Will Grüne be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	Poly	81%
Will AfD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	Poly	6%
Will CDU be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	Poly	5%
Will BSW be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	Poly	4%
Will FW be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	Poly	3%
Will FDP be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$20.14K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government formed after the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government following the 2026 state election is offici

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 21, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government formed after the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government following the 2026 state election is offici

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government formed after the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern sta"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $20.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $57.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.35)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will CDU be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will AfD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Grüne be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 81.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will SPD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will FDP be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Linke be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will FW be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $868
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will BSW be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 21, 2026): Vol $527
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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