Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats win a House supermajority in the Midterms?

Total Volume

$17.15K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Democrats win a House supermajority in the Midterms?

Vol

$17.15K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $17.15K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $17.15K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 290 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 290 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$17.15K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

At least 290 of the 435 seats up in the 2026 U.S. House elections, based on media calls If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 290 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate (including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Democrats win a House supermajority in the Midterms?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** At least 290 of the 435 seats up in the 2026 U.S. House elections, based on media calls

If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 290 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate (including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 290 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $17.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 290 in the 2026 U.S. House elections?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $17.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics