Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?

Total Volume

$185.27K

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Markets

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Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $185.27K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $185.27K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029	Kalshi	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

11%

Top Probability

$185.27K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2029 If the 22nd Amendment has been repealed by a subsequent Constitutional Amendment, or if the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled in an opinion or judgment that the 22nd Amendment permits individuals to be elected to the Presidency at least thrice under at least some circumstances, before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close and expire early. If this event occurs, the market will close and expire earl

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, March 2, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2029

If the 22nd Amendment has been repealed by a subsequent Constitutional Amendment, or if the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled in an opinion or judgment that the 22nd Amendment permits individuals to be elected to the Presidency at least thrice under at least some circumstances, before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close and expire early. If this event occurs, the market will close and expire earl

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $185.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $185.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

11¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Iyjy9X" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?"></iframe>

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Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?

Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?

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Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)