This prediction market topic addresses whether Donald Trump will be legally permitted to run for a third term as President of the United States before January 1, 2029. The market resolves to 'Yes' if, before that date, the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution is repealed by a subsequent amendment, or if the Supreme Court issues a ruling that the 22nd Amendment allows individuals to be elected president at least three times under some circumstances. The 22nd Amendment, ratified in 1951, explicitly states that 'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.' This topic has gained significant attention due to Donald Trump's continued prominence in American politics following his 2020 election loss and his declared candidacy for the 2024 presidential election. While a direct challenge to the amendment's core limit has not been a central part of Trump's public platform, speculation about potential legal or political maneuvers has emerged in political commentary and academic circles, fueled by broader debates about executive power and constitutional interpretation. The topic intersects with ongoing discussions about the stability of democratic norms and the mechanisms for constitutional change in the United States.

Historical Context

The modern presidential term limit was established by the 22nd Amendment, proposed by Congress in 1947 and ratified by the requisite number of states on February 27, 1951. It was a direct reaction to Franklin D. Roosevelt's unprecedented four electoral victories (1932, 1936, 1940, 1944), breaking the two-term tradition established by George Washington. The amendment's text is clear in its prohibition, stating a person cannot be 'elected' more than twice. It also includes a specific clause affecting Harry S. Truman, who was president at the time of its proposal, stating it did not apply to the sitting president. Since its ratification, no serious attempt to repeal the 22nd Amendment has succeeded. A repeal effort was debated in Congress in the late 1950s but failed. The only presidents affected by it who later sought a return to office were Dwight D. Eisenhower, who was term-limited, and more recently, Donald Trump, who is seeking a return after one term. The historical precedent is one of strict adherence to the amendment's literal meaning, with no judicial challenges to its core limitation ever reaching the Supreme Court.

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