How high will inflation get in 2026?
PM $1.50M
1
5
How high will inflation get in 2026?
PM $1.50M
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Above 4.5% at 14%.
Polymarket
- Above 4.5%14%
- Above 5%8.5%
- Above 6%3.5%
- Above 8%2.8%
- Above 10%2.2%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $1.50M
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The provider event asks how high U.S. inflation will get in 2026. Each market resolves to "Yes" if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12-month period ending with any month in 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports [1]. The rules say the BLS release reports inflation "to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%)," so that precision governs resolution [1].
The rules also set timing. The market "may not resolve to 'No' until the December 2026 report is issued," and revisions published after that report "will not be counted" [1]. If the December 2026 report is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves on figures already published [1]. These are rule conditions, not announced release dates.
The listed close times differ. The event's listed end time is 2027-02-01T04:59:00.000Z [1], while each saved market shows an endDate of 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. The record does not explain this gap, so readers should check the platform's current contract page before relying on either time.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation is timestamped 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-22T05:22:19.787Z [1]. These prices describe that observation window only and are not live quotes.
The five saved Yes prices are:
- More than 4.5%: 15.5%
- More than 5%: 8%
- More than 6%: 3.35%
- More than 8%: 3.15%
- More than 10%: 2.5%
Each market is a separate threshold question, so the prices should be read as independent snapshots rather than a single distribution. A snapshot price is not an executable quote or a verified probability, and the saved volume data does not indicate liquidity or the number of traders. The differences between thresholds should not be treated as arbitrage opportunities.
What remains uncertain
All five saved markets for this event are included, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The sample warning still notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The record does not explain why prices moved or show any news, so no cause can be assigned to these levels. The Polymarket data also cannot be compared with other platforms without matching the exact wording, threshold, and close time.
References
- Polymarket: How high will inflation get in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 22, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will show a 12-month increase greater than a listed percentage for any month in 2026, as measured by the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports [1]. Each threshold is a separate Yes or No contract within the same event, and a market resolves to Yes if the threshold is exceeded and to No otherwise [1]. Inflation, in general terms, is an increase in the average price of goods and services measured in money. It is usually tracked with a price index, typically a consumer price index [2]. The inflation rate is the annualized percentage change in a general price index, and when the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services [2]. The contract uses the BLS 12-month CPI change as its measure, so it tracks the purchasing power concept in that sense rather than any single price [1][2]. The contract rules specify that the BLS reports to one decimal place, such as 2.9 percent, and that this level of precision is used when resolving the market [1]. Revisions to previously released CPI figures do not count once the December 2026 report is issued [1]. The rules also state that the market may not resolve to No until the December 2026 report is issued [1]. If that report is not issued by January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves using CPI figures already made available by the BLS [1]. These are conditions in the rules, not an announced release date.
Historical Context
The supplied background on inflation is general and defines the concept and its measurement [2]. A separate Wikipedia summary of the 2026 Iran war describes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a disruption that the International Energy Agency characterized as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market [3]. That summary says the conflict has echoed the 1970s energy crisis through supply shortages, currency volatility, inflation and heightened risks of stagflation and recession [3]. It also reports that in several earlier oil-market shocks the initial price spike proved larger than the eventual sustained increase [3]. This is historical and secondary background. It does not show what current inflation is, and Wikipedia retrieval does not verify current events.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the BLS 12-month CPI change for any 2026 month exceeds a chosen threshold, which makes it a question about a specific official statistic rather than a general view of prices [1]. Because the rules use the one-decimal figure and exclude later revisions after the December 2026 report, the exact wording of the resolution matters as much as the headline inflation concept [1][2]. The saved prices are snapshots at the observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should be read as a record of market prices at that moment rather than as a forecast of the CPI outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-22 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome require?
A Yes outcome requires the CPI to rise by more than the listed percent over the 12-month period ending with any month in 2026, according to the monthly BLS reports [1].
Which figure is used when the market resolves?
The rules use the BLS CPI figure at one decimal place, such as 2.9 percent, as the official monthly news release reports it [1].
Are later revisions to CPI figures counted?
Revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward resolution once the December 2026 report is issued [1].
What happens if the December 2026 CPI report is not issued in time?
If that report is not issued by January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve based on CPI figures already made available by the BLS [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
