Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (10/9-10/16)?

Total Volume

$3.80K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (10/9-10/16)?

Vol

$3.80K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.80K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.80K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Above 8.7%

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Above 8.7%	Kalshi	41%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

41%

Top Probability

$3.80K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

10/9 to 10/16 If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is above 8.7% at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (10/9-10/16)?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 10/9 to 10/16

If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is above 8.7% at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is above 8.7% at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Above 8.7%
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics