Name: Which countries will strike Iran by March 31?
End: 2026-03-01T01:07:28.580Z

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Which countries will strike Iran by March 31? | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $125.95K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $125.95K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?	Poly	39%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Poly	37%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	Poly	22%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?	Poly	13%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	Poly	7%
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	Poly	6%
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?	Poly	5%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	Poly	4%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?	Poly	3%
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

39%

Top Probability

$125.95K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

instead of france germany etc This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which countries will strike Iran by March 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 1, 2026 (0 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** instead of france germany etc

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"instead of france germany etc

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market,"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $126.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $77.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.63)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $21.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $27.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will France strike Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $10.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $26.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $11.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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