Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PM $548.8K
1
1
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PM $548.8K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, Yes is priced at 28.5% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes28.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $548.8K
Reported volume · provider units
1
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0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether Tyler Robinson will be convicted of a criminal homicide offense in the State of Utah v. Tyler James Robinson case. It resolves "Yes" if a conviction is rendered by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and "No" otherwise [1]. The rules also state that a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or a case with no court judgment resolves to "No," and that a mistrial keeps the market open until the resolution date for possible retrials [1]. The rules say the market "will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case," and that appeals have no bearing on resolution [1].
The listed end time is 2027-08-01T03:59:00.000Z, which matches the July 31, 2027 deadline in Eastern Time [1]. The contract is therefore tied to a court outcome within a defined window, not to a general question about the case.
Reading the snapshot
The saved sample contains one binary market from one provider event. Its quoted prices were Yes at 0.305 and No at 0.695 [1]. These are snapshot prices observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-15T20:11:38.084Z. They reflect the moment of observation only and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because the sample includes the full saved event (one of one markets, not a partial sample), no outcome has been omitted from this comparison.
The two prices sum to 1.000 in this snapshot, which is consistent with a simple two-outcome contract. The evidence does not show trading volume, liquidity, or how many participants hold each position, so the prices should not be read as measures of market depth or consensus.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stand where they do, and it contains no news about the case beyond the rules' description that Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder [1]. It also does not establish the case's current procedural status after the observation time. Any comparison with a contract on another platform should first check whether the wording, deadline, and resolution sources match, since differences in those terms can make two similarly titled contracts measure different things.
References
- Polymarket: Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract asks whether Tyler Robinson will be convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the case captioned State of Utah v. Tyler James Robinson, identified in the provider's rules as OTN 70090584. The provider's description states that Robinson "has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk" [1]. The contract is about a court outcome in that case, not about whether the charge itself is accepted as true or disputed. The provider's description links to the charging document for the case [1]. The contract resolves to "Yes" only if a conviction for a criminal homicide offense is entered in this case by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves to "No" [1]. The listed end time for the contract is 2027-08-01T03:59:00Z, which corresponds to that deadline [1]. This is the contract's closing and resolution date, not an announced date for any hearing, trial, or verdict. The rules are specific about what does not count. A plea agreement that ends the case without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any outcome in which no judgment is rendered by the court results in "No" [1]. If the specific charge is dropped, or changed so that it is no longer a criminal homicide offense under the Utah provision the rules cite, the contract resolves to "No" immediately [1]. A mistrial does not end the contract. It stays open until the resolution date so that retrials can be considered, and if no homicide conviction has been rendered by July 31, 2027, it resolves to "No" [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single legal outcome: whether the court enters a judgment of conviction for a criminal homicide offense in this case by the stated deadline [1]. Because the rules separate convictions from pleas without admission, dismissals, mistrials, and changes to the charge, the contract is narrower than a general question about the case. The provider also states that the primary resolution source is an official judgment from the ruling court, while other credible reporting may be used [1]. Anyone reading a price for this contract should keep in mind that the rules define exactly which court event produces a "Yes" resolution.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a plea agreement resolve this contract to Yes?
Not necessarily. The rules state that a case ending in a plea agreement without an admission of guilt resolves the market to "No" [1].
What happens if there is a mistrial?
The market stays open until the resolution date so that further retrials can be considered. If no homicide conviction has been rendered by July 31, 2027, it resolves to "No" [1].
Do appeals affect how the contract resolves?
No. The rules say the market resolves according to the initial judgment, and that any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution [1].
What source determines the outcome?
The primary resolution source is an official judgment delivered by the ruling court, although other credible reporting may be used [1].
What happens if the charge is dropped or changed?
If the specific charge is dropped, or changed so that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense under the cited Utah provision, the market resolves to "No" immediately [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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