Market snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US Treasury cash balance on October 16, 2026

Reported volume

K 2.2K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

US Treasury cash balance on October 16, 2026

Vol

K 2.2K contracts

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Provider overview

polymarket

Reported lifetime volume

kalshi

2.2K contracts

Reported lifetime volume

Reviewed equivalent pairs

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11 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $750 billion?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $750 billion?	Kalshi	97.5%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $775 billion?	Kalshi	97.0%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $800 billion?	Kalshi	96.0%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $825 billion?	Kalshi	95.0%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $850 billion?	Kalshi	91.5%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $875 billion?	Kalshi	77.5%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $900 billion?	Kalshi	35.0%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $925 billion?	Kalshi	18.5%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $950 billion?	Kalshi	9.5%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $975 billion?	Kalshi	7.5%
Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $1,000 billion?	Kalshi	5.5%

Rules & Resolution

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AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 2.2K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC

About This Event

October 16, 2026 If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 is above X billion, then the market resolves to Yes. This market uses the “Treasury General Account, TGA, Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement for October 16, 2026. The published amount, reported in millions of U.S. dollars, is divided by 1,000 to express the balance in billions of U.S. dollars. No additional rounding is applied. The first published value is used. Later corrections and revisions are ignored. The observation date is the date covered by the statement, regardless of when the statement is published. X publication delay does not change the observation date. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: US Treasury cash balance on October 16, 2026
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 2.2K contracts
Coverage: 11 of 11 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $975 billion?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTGAW-26OCT20-T975; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtgaw-26oct20
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 27, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 7.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 is above $975 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement for October 16, 2026.

The published amount, reported in millions of U.S. dollars, is divided by 1,000 to express the balance in billions of U.S. dollars. No additional rounding is applied.

The first published value is used. Later corrections and revisions are ignored. The observation date is the date covered by the statement, regardless of when the statement is published. A publication delay does not change the observation date. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

Contract: Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $950 billion?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTGAW-26OCT20-T950; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtgaw-26oct20
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 27, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 558.9 contracts
Outcome Yes: 9.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 is above $950 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement for October 16, 2026.

The published amount, reported in millions of U.S. dollars, is divided by 1,000 to express the balance in billions of U.S. dollars. No additional rounding is applied.

The first published value is used. Later corrections and revisions are ignored. The observation date is the date covered by the statement, regardless of when the statement is published. A publication delay does not change the observation date. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

Contract: Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $925 billion?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTGAW-26OCT20-T925; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtgaw-26oct20
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 27, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 202 contracts
Outcome Yes: 18.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 81.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 is above $925 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement for October 16, 2026.

The published amount, reported in millions of U.S. dollars, is divided by 1,000 to express the balance in billions of U.S. dollars. No additional rounding is applied.

The first published value is used. Later corrections and revisions are ignored. The observation date is the date covered by the statement, regardless of when the statement is published. A publication delay does not change the observation date. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

Contract: Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $900 billion?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTGAW-26OCT20-T900; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtgaw-26oct20
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 27, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 346.51 contracts
Outcome Yes: 35.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 65.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 is above $900 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement for October 16, 2026.

The published amount, reported in millions of U.S. dollars, is divided by 1,000 to express the balance in billions of U.S. dollars. No additional rounding is applied.

The first published value is used. Later corrections and revisions are ignored. The observation date is the date covered by the statement, regardless of when the statement is published. A publication delay does not change the observation date. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

Contract: Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $875 billion?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTGAW-26OCT20-T875; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtgaw-26oct20
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 27, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 309.58 contracts
Outcome Yes: 77.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 22.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 is above $875 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement for October 16, 2026.

The published amount, reported in millions of U.S. dollars, is divided by 1,000 to express the balance in billions of U.S. dollars. No additional rounding is applied.

The first published value is used. Later corrections and revisions are ignored. The observation date is the date covered by the statement, regardless of when the statement is published. A publication delay does not change the observation date. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

Contract: Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $850 billion?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTGAW-26OCT20-T850; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtgaw-26oct20
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 27, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 15.08 contracts
Outcome Yes: 91.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 8.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 is above $850 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement for October 16, 2026.

The published amount, reported in millions of U.S. dollars, is divided by 1,000 to express the balance in billions of U.S. dollars. No additional rounding is applied.

The first published value is used. Later corrections and revisions are ignored. The observation date is the date covered by the statement, regardless of when the statement is published. A publication delay does not change the observation date. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

Contract: Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $825 billion?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTGAW-26OCT20-T825; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtgaw-26oct20
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 27, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 288.4 contracts
Outcome Yes: 95.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 5.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 is above $825 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement for October 16, 2026.

The published amount, reported in millions of U.S. dollars, is divided by 1,000 to express the balance in billions of U.S. dollars. No additional rounding is applied.

The first published value is used. Later corrections and revisions are ignored. The observation date is the date covered by the statement, regardless of when the statement is published. A publication delay does not change the observation date. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

Contract: Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $800 billion?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTGAW-26OCT20-T800; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtgaw-26oct20
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 27, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 42.18 contracts
Outcome Yes: 96.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 4.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 is above $800 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement for October 16, 2026.

The published amount, reported in millions of U.S. dollars, is divided by 1,000 to express the balance in billions of U.S. dollars. No additional rounding is applied.

The first published value is used. Later corrections and revisions are ignored. The observation date is the date covered by the statement, regardless of when the statement is published. A publication delay does not change the observation date. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

Contract: Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $775 billion?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTGAW-26OCT20-T775; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtgaw-26oct20
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 27, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 136.2 contracts
Outcome Yes: 97.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 3.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 is above $775 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement for October 16, 2026.

The published amount, reported in millions of U.S. dollars, is divided by 1,000 to express the balance in billions of U.S. dollars. No additional rounding is applied.

The first published value is used. Later corrections and revisions are ignored. The observation date is the date covered by the statement, regardless of when the statement is published. A publication delay does not change the observation date. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

Contract: Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $750 billion?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTGAW-26OCT20-T750; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtgaw-26oct20
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 27, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 263.44 contracts
Outcome Yes: 97.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 2.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 is above $750 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement for October 16, 2026.

The published amount, reported in millions of U.S. dollars, is divided by 1,000 to express the balance in billions of U.S. dollars. No additional rounding is applied.

The first published value is used. Later corrections and revisions are ignored. The observation date is the date covered by the statement, regardless of when the statement is published. A publication delay does not change the observation date. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

Contract: Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 be above $1,000 billion?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTGAW-26OCT20-T1000; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtgaw-26oct20
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 27, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 5.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Treasury General Account closing balance for October 16, 2026 is above $1,000 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the “Treasury General Account (TGA) Closing Balance” in the “Today” column of Table I — Operating Cash Balance in the Daily Treasury Statement for October 16, 2026.

The published amount, reported in millions of U.S. dollars, is divided by 1,000 to express the balance in billions of U.S. dollars. No additional rounding is applied.

The first published value is used. Later corrections and revisions are ignored. The observation date is the date covered by the statement, regardless of when the statement is published. A publication delay does not change the observation date. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics