Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US existing home sales for September

Total Volume

$18.42K

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Markets

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US existing home sales for September

Vol

$18.42K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $18.42K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.42K

100%

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8 markets tracked

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.60M?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.60M?	Kalshi	99%
Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.70M?	Kalshi	98%
Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.80M?	Kalshi	91%
Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.90M?	Kalshi	89%
Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 4.00M?	Kalshi	54%
Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 4.10M?	Kalshi	27%
Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 4.20M?	Kalshi	9%
Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 4.30M?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$18.42K

Volume

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About This Event

September 2026 If US existing home sales for September 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Trading Economics, series: United States Existing Home Sales, which reports National Association of Realtors, NAR, data. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US existing home sales for September
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** September 2026

If US existing home sales for September 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Trading Economics, series: United States Existing Home Sales, which reports National Association of Realtors, NAR, data. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If US existing home sales for September 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 4.30M, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Trading Economics (series: United States Existing Home Sales), which reports National Association of Realtors (NAR"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 4.30M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $146
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 4.20M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 4.10M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $247
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 4.00M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $480
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.90M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.80M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $214
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.70M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $47
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.60M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $14.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US existing home sales for September

Volume$18.42K

Markets8

8 of 8

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KALSHI

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.60M?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.60M?

If US existing home sales for September 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 3.60M, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Trading Economics (series: United States Existing Home Sales), which reports National Association of Realtors (NAR

KALSHI

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.70M?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.70M?

If US existing home sales for September 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 3.70M, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Trading Economics (series: United States Existing Home Sales), which reports National Association of Realtors (NAR

KALSHI

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.80M?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.0¢No 9.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.80M?

If US existing home sales for September 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 3.80M, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Trading Economics (series: United States Existing Home Sales), which reports National Association of Realtors (NAR

KALSHI

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.90M?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.0¢No 11.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.90M?

If US existing home sales for September 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 3.90M, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Trading Economics (series: United States Existing Home Sales), which reports National Association of Realtors (NAR

KALSHI

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 4.00M?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 54.0¢No 46.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 4.00M?

If US existing home sales for September 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 4.00M, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Trading Economics (series: United States Existing Home Sales), which reports National Association of Realtors (NAR

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US existing home sales for September

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Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.60M?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

US existing home sales for September

Markets (8)

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.60M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.60M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.70M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.70M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.80M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.80M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.90M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.90M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 4.00M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 4.00M?

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Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.60M?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US existing home sales for September

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.60M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.60M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.70M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.70M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.80M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.80M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.90M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 3.90M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 4.00M?

Will US existing home sales for September 2026 be above 4.00M?

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