GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?

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Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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6 markets tracked

Will Hungary vote to leave the EU before 2030?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Hungary vote to leave the EU before 2030?	Kalshi	4%
Will Spain vote to leave the EU before 2030?	Kalshi	4%
Will Italy vote to leave the EU before 2030?	Kalshi	3%
Will Poland vote to leave the EU before 2030?	Kalshi	2%
Will France vote to leave the EU before 2030?	Kalshi	2%
Will Germany vote to leave the EU before 2030?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

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About This Event

Before 2030 If X votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2030

If X votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Spain votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Spain vote to leave the EU before 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Poland vote to leave the EU before 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Hungary vote to leave the EU before 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Germany vote to leave the EU before 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will France vote to leave the EU before 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Italy vote to leave the EU before 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Volume$0.00

Markets6

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KALSHI

Will Hungary vote to leave the EU before 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.7¢No 96.3¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Hungary vote to leave the EU before 2030?

If Hungary votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Spain vote to leave the EU before 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Spain vote to leave the EU before 2030?

If Spain votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Italy vote to leave the EU before 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.3¢No 96.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Italy vote to leave the EU before 2030?

If Italy votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Poland vote to leave the EU before 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Poland vote to leave the EU before 2030?

If Poland votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will France vote to leave the EU before 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will France vote to leave the EU before 2030?

If France votes to leave the EU before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/JErHGr" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?"></iframe>

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Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?

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Will Hungary vote to leave the EU before 2030?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Markets (6)

Will Hungary vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will Hungary vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will Spain vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will Spain vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will Italy vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will Italy vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will Poland vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will Poland vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will France vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will France vote to leave the EU before 2030?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Hungary vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will Hungary vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will Hungary vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will Spain vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will Spain vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will Italy vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will Italy vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will Poland vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will Poland vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will France vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Will France vote to leave the EU before 2030?

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