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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Kansas Republican Party; however, an over
Prediction markets currently show a very close race for the Republican nomination for Kansas Governor. The central question, "Will Jeff Colyer be the Republican nominee?" is trading at a 56% probability. This means traders collectively see it as a slight favorite, giving Colyer roughly a 4 in 7 chance of winning the primary. His main competitor, State Treasurer Steven Johnson, is given about a 44% chance, or roughly 2 in 5. With thousands of dollars wagered, the market signals a genuine toss-up where the outcome is highly uncertain.
The tight odds reflect a primary defined by an insider versus outsider dynamic within the state's Republican party. Jeff Colyer is the former Governor, having served for a year after Sam Brownback resigned in 2018 before losing a bitter primary to Kris Kobach. His strength is establishment support and name recognition, but his past loss is a clear liability.
Steven Johnson, the current State Treasurer, is running as a conservative outsider. He has built a profile by criticizing state spending and has secured key endorsements from figures like Attorney General Kris Kobach. The market sees this as a battle between Colyer's experience and Johnson's appeal to the party's more activist base. There is no overwhelming favorite because both paths to victory seem plausible.
The primary election is on August 4, 2026. The most important events before then will be the candidate filing deadline in June and any scheduled debates. Polls released in late spring and early summer will be critical for shifting market odds, as they will show which candidate's message is resonating with likely Republican voters. Also, watch for any major endorsements, particularly from popular former officials or large in-state donor groups, as these can significantly move the needle in a race this close.
Prediction markets have a solid track record in high-profile political primaries, often outperforming early polls by aggregating many opinions. However, this reliability increases as the election gets closer and more information becomes public. For a state-level primary still months away, the current odds are a good snapshot of informed sentiment but are more volatile. The small amount of money wagered (about $39,000) compared to presidential markets also means the odds could shift more easily on new information. Treat this as a live snapshot of informed confidence, not a final forecast.
Prediction markets currently price Jeff Colyer as the most likely Republican nominee for Kansas Governor, but far from a lock. On Kalshi, the contract "Will Jeff Colyer be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas?" trades at 56¢, implying a 56% probability. The Polymarket contract for Colyer to win the primary trades at 52¢. This 4-point spread indicates thin liquidity and a market consensus that sees Colyer as a slight favorite in a crowded field. A 56% chance suggests the market views his nomination as more probable than not, but the race remains highly competitive with significant uncertainty priced in.
Colyer’s status as the former Governor of Kansas, having served from 2018 to 2019 after Sam Brownback’s resignation, provides him with immediate name recognition and a political network. This established base is a primary reason he leads the market. However, his narrow loss in the 2018 Republican primary to Kris Kobach, by just 343 votes, demonstrates persistent vulnerability within the party’s base. The current field includes Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt, the 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee, who is also a formidable candidate with statewide electoral experience. Schmidt’s presence caps Colyer’s odds well below 70%, as the market remembers his past defeat and anticipates a competitive rematch.
The primary is on August 4, 2026, leaving over five months for the dynamic to shift. The key catalyst will be the official filing deadline in June 2026, which will finalize the candidate field. A decision by Derek Schmidt not to run would likely cause Colyer’s probability to surge above 80%. Conversely, an endorsement from a major figure like Senator Roger Marshall or a well-funded challenge from a political outsider could quickly erode Colyer’s frontrunner status. Polling data, which is currently sparse, will become the dominant price driver once regular surveys begin in early 2026.
A consistent 4% price gap exists between Kalshi (56¢) and Polymarket (52¢) for Jeff Colyer. This spread is meaningful given the thin $39,000 in total volume across all candidates. The discrepancy likely stems from platform-specific user bases and low liquidity making prices slow to correct. Kalshi’s U.S.-focused retail traders may be more familiar with Colyer’s profile, while Polymarket’s global user base might be applying a broader discount for U.S. political uncertainty. This creates a nominal arbitrage opportunity, but the low volume and high holding period until August 2026 make executing a profitable trade challenging.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the Republican primary for the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election. Participants are betting on whether a specific candidate, designated as 'X', will secure the Republican Party's nomination to run for governor. The market resolves to 'Yes' if X wins the primary and will close early upon that event. The 2026 election will determine who succeeds or continues the tenure of the current governor, with the primary serving as the critical first step in the Republican selection process. Kansas has a history of competitive Republican primaries, often reflecting broader national tensions within the party between establishment figures and more conservative, populist challengers. The race is drawing early attention because the governorship is one of the few statewide elected offices in Kansas, giving the winner significant influence over state policy, budgets, and appointments. Political observers are watching for early endorsements, fundraising numbers, and potential retirements from current officeholders that could reshape the field.
The Republican primary for Kansas governor has been a volatile and decisive political event for over a decade. In 2010, Senator Sam Brownback easily won the primary en route to the governorship, implementing sweeping tax cuts that defined state politics. His unpopularity led to a shift, and in 2018, the primary became a major battleground. Incumbent Governor Jeff Colyer, who assumed office after Brownback resigned for an ambassadorship, faced a fierce challenge from Secretary of State Kris Kobach. Kobach, championing hardline conservative policies, defeated Colyer by just 343 votes out of over 317,000 cast, one of the closest primaries in state history. Kobach's subsequent loss to Democrat Laura Kelly in the general election was seen by many Republicans as a missed opportunity, creating lasting factions between those who blame Kobach's electability and those who support his ideological purity. This dynamic repeated in 2022 when former Attorney General Derek Schmidt, seen as the establishment pick, won the primary but also lost to Kelly in the general election. These consecutive losses have intensified debates within the Kansas GOP about candidate quality, electability, and ideological direction, setting the stage for a potentially contentious 2026 primary.
The winner of the Republican primary will likely face a competitive general election against a Democratic opponent, possibly incumbent Laura Kelly if she seeks a third term or another candidate. The outcome directly influences state policy on taxes, education funding, healthcare, and social issues for the next four years. Kansas is a Republican-leaning state where the governor's office has been held by Democrats since 2019, making the 2026 race a top priority for the GOP to reclaim executive power. Beyond state borders, the primary is a bellwether for the direction of the Republican Party in Midwestern states. A victory for a populist, Trump-aligned candidate would signal the strength of that movement in heartland GOP politics. A win for a more traditional, business-oriented Republican would suggest a reversion to pre-2016 party norms. The result will also affect down-ballot races and the state legislature's dynamics, as the governor plays a key role in campaigning and setting the party's agenda.
As of late 2024, the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial race is in its earliest stages. No major Republican candidate has formally declared their candidacy. Potential contenders are likely engaged in private fundraising, polling, and discussions with party leaders and donors. The political landscape is shaped by the 2024 presidential and congressional elections, which will influence national party dynamics and resource allocation. Incumbent Democratic Governor Laura Kelly is term-limited, creating an open seat race that typically attracts more candidates from both parties. The Kansas Republican Party apparatus is likely conducting internal reviews of the 2022 loss and assessing potential standard-bearers.
The primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This is the date when registered Republican voters in Kansas will select their party's nominee for the general election in November.
No, Governor Laura Kelly is term-limited. Kansas law restricts governors to serving two consecutive four-year terms. Kelly was elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022, making her ineligible to run again in 2026.
There is no clear favorite this far in advance. Early speculation often mentions former candidates like Derek Schmidt or Kris Kobach, but the field is undefined. Fundraising reports in 2025 will provide the first concrete indicators of candidate strength.
Kansas does not have an open primary. It uses a closed primary system for presidential and state races. Only voters who are registered with the Republican Party by the deadline can vote in the Republican gubernatorial primary.
The last competitive primary was in 2018. Secretary of State Kris Kobach defeated incumbent Governor Jeff Colyer by a margin of 343 votes, a result that was confirmed after a recount.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
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| 55% | 56% | 2% |
| 30% | 29% | 0% |
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In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Kansas Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Kansas Republican Party; however, an over
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Republican Pr
If Jeff Colyer wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Kansas Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Jeff Colyer wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Republican Pr
If Ty Masterson wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Kansas Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Ty Masterson wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Republican Pr
If Philip Sarnecki wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Kansas Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Philip Sarnecki wins the party's nomination.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Republican Pr
If Scott Schwab wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Kansas Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Scott Schwab wins the party's nomination.
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