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$407.01K
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$407.01K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any new general tariff on imports into the United States from the listed country goes into effect for any amount of time by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have occurred without being further delayed or suspended. A new general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a new policy of a g
Prediction markets currently give about a 1 in 4 chance that the United States will finalize a new free trade agreement with Vietnam before 2027. This means traders collectively see it as unlikely, but not impossible. For context, markets see deals with the United Kingdom or Taiwan as even less probable, with odds below 10%. The focus on Vietnam suggests it is the most plausible candidate for a new deal in a potential second Trump term, though still a long shot.
The modest 25% probability rests on a few factors. First, the U.S. and Vietnam elevated their relationship to a "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" in 2023. This diplomatic upgrade created a framework for deeper economic ties. Second, Vietnam is a major alternative manufacturing hub for companies diversifying supply chains away from China, a goal shared by many U.S. policymakers. A trade deal could lock in those shifts.
However, significant barriers exist. The last major U.S. trade pact was signed over 15 years ago. Recent administrations have focused more on tariffs and targeted agreements rather than sweeping new deals. Any agreement would face a contentious ratification process in the U.S. Senate, where trade is often a divisive issue. Traders are weighing these historical and political hurdles against the clear strategic interest.
The main event is the U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024. A Trump victory would be the essential first step for this prediction, as the question hinges on his administration. If he wins, watch for early 2025 signals. Key indicators would be an official announcement to launch trade negotiations or a meeting between the U.S. Trade Representative and Vietnamese officials. Without clear momentum by mid-2025, the likelihood would drop sharply, as finalizing a complex deal typically takes years.
Prediction markets have a mixed record on long-term political outcomes like specific legislation. They are generally better at forecasting near-term elections than the passage of complex policies, which can stall for unexpected reasons. For trade deals, their accuracy is hard to gauge because such events are rare. The odds here mainly reflect the collective judgment of informed participants about political will and procedural timelines. The low trading volume for this specific question also suggests less consensus and higher uncertainty compared to major election markets.
Prediction markets assign a low probability to a new U.S. trade deal with Vietnam before 2027. On Polymarket, the contract for a Vietnam agreement trades at 25¢, implying just a 25% chance. This price indicates the market views a deal as unlikely within the timeframe, though not impossible. The market is part of a larger group of 17 country-specific contracts with a combined volume of $216,000, showing moderate trader interest in the overall theme. The resolution deadline is December 31, 2026.
The low probability reflects significant political and strategic hurdles. First, U.S. trade policy is increasingly protectionist, with both major parties skeptical of new broad free trade agreements. The Biden administration has focused on limited frameworks like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which lacks traditional market-access commitments. Vietnam, while a major trade partner, is often discussed in the context of supply chain diversification away from China, not a comprehensive bilateral deal.
Second, Vietnam's status as a non-market economy complicates negotiations. Granting Vietnam full free trade agreement benefits would require Congress to adjust its approach to Vietnam's trade status, a politically contentious process. The existing U.S.-Vietnam trade relationship is largely governed by the 2001 Bilateral Trade Agreement and Vietnam's participation in the CPTPP, reducing immediate pressure for a new pact.
A decisive Republican victory in the 2024 presidential election, particularly a Trump win, could shift the odds. The market description specifies "Trump make new trade deals," and the former president has expressed affinity for bilateral agreements and Vietnam as a manufacturing alternative to China. A second Trump administration might prioritize a quick, symbolic deal with Vietnam to showcase a decoupling-from-China achievement. However, even then, Congressional ratification would remain a steep barrier.
The timeline is also a constraint. Trade negotiations typically take multiple years, and the window between a potential January 2025 inauguration and the end of 2026 is tight. A major breakthrough in the IPEF negotiations that includes Vietnam with substantive trade terms could act as a catalyst, but current IPEF talks have stalled on ambitious points. Movement there would be the clearest near-term signal of changing odds.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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