Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?

Total Volume

$1.20K

Events

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Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.20K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.20K

100%

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1 market tracked

Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?	Kalshi	22%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

22%

Top Probability

$1.20K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

Before 2029 If another Quebec independence referendum has a date announced (either by the Quebec provincial government or the Canadian federal government) before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The referendum's date doesn't need to be before Jan 1, 2029, a date just has to be announced before Jan 1, 2029. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2029

If another Quebec independence referendum has a date announced (either by the Quebec provincial government or the Canadian federal government) before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The referendum's date doesn't need to be before Jan 1, 2029, a date just has to be announced before Jan 1, 2029. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If another Quebec independence referendum has a date announced (either by the Quebec provincial government or the Canadian federal government) before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The referendum's date doesn't need to be before Jan 1, 2029, a date just has to be anno"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $33.52M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

22¢

Kalshi

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Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?

Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?

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Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)