Name: Hungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
End: 2026-04-12T00:00:00.000Z

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Hungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place | PredictPedia

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9 markets tracked

Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Poly	100%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Poly	0%
Will Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Hungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 12, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties ar

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. 

If the results are not known definitively by Octob"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $375.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.09M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.35)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $211.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $95.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $39.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $15.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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11¢

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Hungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

Hungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

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Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

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Events (1)

Hungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

Markets (9)

Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Hungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

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