What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give about a 1 in 5 chance that a new country will join the Abraham Accords by March 31. This means traders collectively see a new normalization deal with Israel as unlikely, but not impossible, within the next month.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
The low probability reflects the complex diplomatic situation. The Abraham Accords, which began in 2020, saw the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco establish formal ties with Israel. Recent expansion has stalled for a few reasons.
First, the war in Gaza has made public normalization with Israel a difficult political move for many potential candidate nations, like Saudi Arabia or Indonesia, due to domestic and regional pressure. Second, major diplomatic deals typically require lengthy, visible negotiations. There are no public signs of an imminent signing ceremony. Historically, these agreements are announced with some fanfare, not secretly.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The March 31 deadline is itself the key date. Watch for official state visits between Israeli officials and leaders from Muslim-majority nations, or joint statements from the U.S. State Department, which has been a key broker. A sudden meeting between, for example, Israeli and Saudi foreign ministers would be a strong signal. The lack of such events in the coming weeks would reinforce the current low odds.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
Markets are generally decent at aggregating geopolitical odds when there is clear, time-bound resolution. For similar "deal or no deal" foreign policy events, they often capture the consensus of informed observers. The main limitation here is that diplomacy can change quickly with a single phone call. The current 22% chance essentially captures the possibility of a surprise announcement, weighed against the visible political headwinds.
