Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?

Name: Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$58.58K

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Markets

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Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?

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Polymarket

markets · $58.58K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $58.58K

100%

Polymarket leads

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1 market tracked

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?	Poly	54%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

54%

Top Probability

$58.58K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already apart of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abr

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (75 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already apart of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.

Countries already part of the Abr

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already apart of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing refers to an officia"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $58.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $9.0K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.51)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $58.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

74d 13h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

54¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/JTvuBl" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?"></iframe>

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Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?

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Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)