This prediction market topic examines the potential departure of five distinct political leaders from their current positions before February 2026. The contract specifically tracks whether Ali Khamenei (Supreme Leader of Iran), Tim Walz (Governor of Minnesota), Miguel Díaz-Canel (President of Cuba), Donald Trump (President of the United States), or any member of a potential Trump Cabinet will vacate their role within the specified timeframe. A departure requires an actual date on which the individual ceases to hold the office, excluding temporary absences or delegations of authority. The question intersects geopolitics, domestic U.S. politics, and succession dynamics in authoritarian and democratic systems, creating a complex web of probabilities. Interest stems from the high-stakes nature of each position. Khamenei's health and age are constant subjects of speculation given his ultimate authority in Iran. Walz's future is tied to state-level political shifts and potential federal appointments. Díaz-Canel operates within Cuba's single-party system, where leadership changes are opaque. Trump's potential presidency and the stability of his administration are central to U.S. political forecasting. The inclusion of a Trump Cabinet, defined as the heads of the 15 executive departments, adds a layer of volatility, as cabinet turnover is common in new administrations. This market serves as a consolidated gauge of political risk and stability across multiple arenas through early 2026.

Historical Context

The historical context for this prediction spans decades of political transitions. In Iran, the position of Supreme Leader has only changed hands twice since the 1979 Revolution, from Ruhollah Khomeini to Ali Khamenei in 1989. That succession occurred upon Khomeini's death and involved last-minute changes to the constitution, highlighting the opaque and potentially unstable nature of the process. In Cuba, leadership transitions have been rare and carefully managed. Fidel Castro ruled from 1959 until he formally ceded power to his brother Raúl in 2008 due to illness, with Raúl subsequently overseeing a transition to Miguel Díaz-Canel. This established a model for planned succession within the Communist Party, not through popular vote or sudden upheaval. For U.S. governors, Minnesota has seen only two governors leave office early in the last 50 years. Wendell Anderson resigned in 1976 to be appointed to the U.S. Senate, and Jesse Ventura completed his term but did not seek re-election. At the federal level, no U.S. president has resigned since Richard Nixon in 1974, and only one, John F. Kennedy, has died in office in the last 80 years. However, cabinet turnover is a frequent historical norm. The first Trump administration set a modern record for cabinet instability, with 65% of initial cabinet secretaries departing before the end of the term, a rate exceeding the administrations of Reagan, Clinton, and Obama.

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