Top US Netflix Show this week?
K 4.86 contracts
1
10
Top US Netflix Show this week?
K 4.86 contracts
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Below: Limited Series at 43%.
Kalshi
- Below: Limited Series43%
- The Diplomat: Season 417.5%
- Love Is Blind: S11: Boston15.5%
- TYSON: Limited Series0.5%
- Raw: 2026 - October 12, 20260.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 4.86 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The chart published on Oct 27, 2026 If X is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Oct 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday. Therefore, the market will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before. The chart published on Oct 27, 2026 will be for the week ending the previous Sunday. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Netflix. Any references to Netflix, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Netflix and Kalshi. The Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday. Therefore, the market will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Kalshi event asks which title will be the top US Netflix show on a chart. The rules state: "If X Y is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Oct 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] The individual market titles, however, refer to "Oct 19, 2026." The rules' chart publication date is the governing wording, so readers should confirm it on the provider's page before relying on either date.
The rules say the chart "will be for the week ending the previous Sunday," and that the market "will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before" the Tuesday update [1]. The source excerpt also says the listed end time is "not supplied," yet the market records show an end date of 2026-10-26T14:00:00.000Z. This conflict is unresolved in the evidence, so that field should not be treated as the confirmed close or resolution time. The source also notes that Netflix has not endorsed the product [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z, and the source was retrieved at 12:36 UTC the same day [1]. These are snapshot values from the observation time, not live quotes, and they are not executable prices or verified probabilities.
All ten saved markets for this event are included, and no partial sample is flagged. The Below: Limited Series contract shows Yes at 0.985 and No at 0.015. Each of the other nine shows Yes at 0.005 and No at 0.995. The evidence does not separate those nine contracts, since they share identical quoted prices. The sample also reports no volume figures, so these prices say nothing about liquidity or the number of traders.
Because the contracts track different titles on a shared event, the prices should be read individually. They should not be averaged or compared with prices from another platform, and their differences do not indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The source warns that "This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome." [1] The evidence therefore cannot confirm that no other title could appear at the top.
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it contains no information about recent Netflix charts, trader activity, or the accuracy of this market's past pricing. The observed snapshot also does not show the current price. Readers should check the provider's live page and the chart publication rules before drawing conclusions.
References
- Kalshi: Top US Netflix Show this week?. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T12:00:05.894Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia tracks a Kalshi event titled "Top US Netflix Show this week?" [1]. The contract asks whether a named title will be the number one show on Netflix's Top 10 US Show chart. Under the rules, if the named show is #1 on the chart published on October 20, 2026, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The rules also explain the timing. Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday, and the market closes at 11:59 PM ET on the day before the chart is published. The October 20, 2026 chart covers the week ending the previous Sunday [1]. These are the contract's rules, not an announced schedule of events. The individual market titles refer to October 19, 2026, while the rule text refers to the chart published October 20, 2026 [1]. Readers should use the rule text to understand which chart determines the outcome. The event notes that Netflix has not endorsed the product and that references to Netflix are descriptive only [1]. Netflix is described in background sources as a subscription video on-demand streaming service that distributes original and acquired films and television shows [3].
Historical Context
Monster is an American anthology series that dramatizes high-profile homicide cases, with each season focusing on a different killer. It was initially conceived as a limited series but was later renewed as an anthology after its first season, The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, premiered on September 21, 2022. Later seasons were The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story in 2024, The Ed Gein Story in 2025, and The Lizzie Borden Story in 2026 [2]. This is historical background from a Wikipedia article. The saved Kalshi market titles for this event do not include Monster, so the article is not evidence of the show's current chart position [1][2].
Why It Matters
The contract measures only whether a named title holds the first position on one specific Netflix Top 10 US Show chart, as defined in the event rules [1]. It does not measure overall viewership, critical reception, or the show's ranking on any other date. The saved market data lists ten contract titles under this event, each asking whether its named show will be number one on the October 19, 2026 chart [1]. Because all of these titles belong to one provider event, their saved prices should be compared only within that event. The saved prices are snapshots from the provider and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which chart decides whether a market resolves to Yes?
The rules say that a market resolves to Yes if the named show is number one on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on October 20, 2026 [1]. The market titles refer to October 19, 2026, so the rule text is the better reference for the chart used [1].
When does the market close?
The rules state that Netflix charts are updated on Tuesday and that the market closes at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart is published [1]. The saved data also lists an end date, but the provider excerpt does not describe that field as the resolution time, so it should not be read as an announced resolution date [1].
Does a saved price show how likely a show is to rank first?
No. The saved prices are snapshots from the provider, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. A low price on one contract does not show what the price would be on another date or on a different chart.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
