Name: NV-04 House Election Winner
End: 2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z

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NV-04 House Election Winner | PredictPedia

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2 markets tracked

Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat?

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Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat?	Poly	49%
Will the Republican Party win the NV-04 House seat?	Poly	13%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** NV-04 House Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 4, 2026 (292 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed a

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-lis"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $202
* **Total Liquidity:** $211
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.96)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $147
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Republican Party win the NV-04 House seat?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $55
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

291d 12h remaining

Nov 04, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

31¢

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NV-04 House Election Winner

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Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat?

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Events (1)

NV-04 House Election Winner

Markets (2)

Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the NV-04 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the NV-04 House seat?

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Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat?

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NV-04 House Election Winner

Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the NV-04 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the NV-04 House seat?

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