GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsElections

2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)

Name: 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)
End: 2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.69M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)

Vol

$2.69M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.13M

Kalshi

markets · $558.48K

Price Spread

2.5%avg

max 3.0%

Arbitrage

of 2 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.69M

79%

21%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(2)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?ARB	61%	57%	3%
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	40%	42%	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

61%

Top Probability

$2.69M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2028 If a representative X party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close following the inauguration of a non-acting President for the term beginning January 20, 2029. This market will close following the inauguration of a non-acting President for the term beginning January 20, 2029.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, September 28, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2028

If a representative X party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close following the inauguration of a non-acting President for the term beginning January 20, 2029. This market will close following the inauguration of a non-acting President for the term beginning January 20, 2029.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close following the inauguration of a non-acting President for the term beginning January 20, 2029."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.69M
* **Total Liquidity:** $334.1K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.05)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (2 mkts) vs Kalshi (2 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2029): Vol $312.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.13M
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.0% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2029): Vol $246.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $1.00M
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 3.0% spread between platforms.

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIElections

2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)

Volume$558.48K

Markets2

POLYMARKETPolitics

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) t

Volume$2.13M

Markets2

2 of 2

Sort:

Arbitrage Opportunity: 3.0% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average59.0%

Polymarket+3.0%

60.5%

Kalshi

57.5%

Difference:3.0% Arbitrage!

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 60.5¢No 39.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 57.5¢No 42.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028?

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close following the inauguration of a non-acting President for the term beginning January 20, 2029.

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average40.5%

Polymarket

39.5%

Kalshi+2.0%

41.5%

Difference:2.0%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028?

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close following the inauguration of a non-acting President for the term beginning January 20, 2029.

Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

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Discussion

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Next Market Closes

770d remaining

Nov 07, 2028 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

50¢

Polymarket

50¢

Kalshi

3¢ price gap

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/JgCos2" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)"></iframe>

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2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)